Browsing by Person "Hess, Sebastian"

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Hohenheimer Genossenschaftsforschung 2021
(2022) Hess, Sebastian
Hohenheimer Genossenschaftsforschung 2022
(2023) Hess, Sebastian
Modellanalyse zu Tierwohl und Wirtschaftlichkeit in der Milchviehhaltung: Bewertung verfahrenstechnischer Maßnahmen und deren ökonomische Auswirkungen
(2023) Gütschow, Paul; Fuchs, Clemens; Louton, Helen; Hess, Sebastian
The welfare of dairy cows is ethically (the animal as an individual) and economically (the animal as a production factor) of high relevance. At the same time, society's growing expectations about good husbandry conditions for dairy cows are increasingly encountering the requirements and framework conditions of modern dairy farming. In the study on animal welfare and economic efficiency, this discrepancy was taken up and examined in more detail based on 28 farms with 46 free-stall barns in north-eastern Germany. The farms were divided into four classes: I < 300 animals, II 300 – 599 animals, III 600 – 900 animals, IV > 900 animals. The status quo on animal welfare was recorded, in the event of deficiencies in the housing conditions, short-term normative measures (additional cubicle care, replacement of the cubicle mat, conversion of the cubicle brackets, etc.) as well as medium-term normative measures (conversion of the lying and walking areas) were derived and the additional costs for improving animal welfare were calculated. In addition, the annual expenses for year-round grazing were calculated. To describe the framework conditions in dairy farming, the development of the husbandry conditions of dairy cows in Germany since 1950 was outlined including essential technical and structural innovations with increasing of bedding-free husbandry methods and year-round barn husbandry from the seventies to today's modern free-stall barn husbandry. Based on this, the current status quo for the animal welfare of highly lactating dairy cows of the Holstein breed in the 46 barns was evaluated and factors influencing the housing environment in the barn on the characteristics of technopathies, contamination (data set D1; 2,082 animals) and lying times (subsample D2; 632 animals) on individual animals were evaluated with the help of statistical tests in two multi-level models (linear mixed model, generalized estimation equations) and decision trees. Regarding technopathies, an assessment was made in five damage classes (0 without special findings, 1 hairless area, 2 skinless area, 3 circumferential increase covered, 4 circumferential increases open). In the survey, technopathies were found in all body regions examined. On average, the following ratings were given carpal joints (0.20), tarsal joints (0.60), knee joints (0.10), and withers (0.30). For the spine, a mean value of 1.20 was recorded. A total of 25.70 % or 535 animals were documented as unharmed (no technopathies) in the study. The aim would be to achieve a proportion of 100 % animals without injuries. Regarding contamination, the assessment was carried out in the score from 1 clean to 6 strong clod formation. The body regions udder, abdomen, tail, tail tassel, hindquarters, cross, ischium and lower leg were rated on average with 2 (isolated, slightly discolored splotches). Deviations from the reference values were recorded for the expression of the lying behavior. On average, the total lying time was 11.60 hours per day (norm 12 to 14 hours), with a lying bout duration of 74.90 minutes (norm 50 to 120 min) and an average number of 10 lying bouts per day (norm 11 to 12). The requirements for the duration of the stay (total lying time, number of lying bouts) were not met on average in the study. Overall, deficiencies can be found in the three areas relevant to welfare of dairy cows (technopathies, cleanliness, lying times). Furthermore, it was investigated to what extent the identified deficits in animal welfare are caused by weaknesses in the barns. For this purpose, the dimensions and condition of the lying, walking, and feeding areas were surveyed. In the barns, 58.70 % of the lying areas were found to be too short (< 182.50 cm); 93.50 % of the lying areas are recorded as too narrow (< 117.50 cm) and in 30.40 % of the deep boxes the fecal level is recorded as too low (< 20 cm). The stall and feeding corridors were documented as too narrow in 45.80 % (< 2.50 m) and 47.80 % (< 3.50 m) of the barns and were also rated as unsafe in 12 out of 46 barns. Furthermore, in 38 out of 45 barns, too low an upper demarcation in the feeding area (< 149 cm) was documented. In the lying area, 22 barns were equipped with high boxes and 26 with deep boxes. In these, deficiencies in the state of care were found. In 54.90 % of the high boxes, less than 50 % of the lying area was covered with bedding. In addition, 68.80 % of the deep boxes showed strong trough formation in the lying surface. In the area of animal comfort, 26 out of 46 barns were equipped with brushes and 25 out of 28 barns with foot baths. The housing conditions in the lying, walking, and feeding areas often show deviations from the reference values with an impact on animal welfare. The clearest effects of the housing conditions on the severity of technopathies, contamination and lying times were recorded in the lying area. Significantly fewer animals without injuries were documented in barns with high boxes (14.70 % animals without technopathies) instead of barns with deep boxes (35.60 % animals without technopathies). In addition, animals in barns with high boxes were recorded with a higher value of contamination instead of barns with low boxes. In barns with narrow lying surfaces (< 117.50 cm), fewer animals without injuries (24.50 %) were found than in barns with wider lying areas (≥ 117.50 cm; 43.10 % without injuries). More animals with total lying times of < 12 hours per day (56 %) were recorded in barns with narrow lying areas than in barns with wider lying areas and a proportion of 27 % of animals with less than 12 hours of total lying time per day. Furthermore, increases in technopathies were observed in the tarsal joints and spine as the length of the lying surface decreased. For the economic evaluation, the investment requirements, the additional labor requirements, as well as the additional costs of grazing were estimated and the average annual costs per animal, as well as the costs per kg of energy-corrected milk (ECM) were calculated. The calculated annual costs for the elimination of deficiencies with an impact on technopathies, contamination and lying times are between EUR 181 and EUR 1,615 per animal p.a. or EUR 0.02 and EUR 0.17 per kg ECM for short- and medium-term normative measures, as well as grazing. The average annual cost of grazing (365 days p.a.) is between EUR 0.02 and EUR 0.08 per kg of ECM. Mostly, the farms incur additional expenses for the pasture in the amount of EUR 0.03 per kg ECM. On average, additional annual expenditure for the improvement of housing conditions of EUR 741 per animal per annum and EUR 0.07 per kg ECM was calculated. In most farms, a conversion of the barns would involve changes in the lying area (e.g., enlargement of the lying area, reduction of the number of cubicles) and a reduction in the number of animals. On average in the study, conversions in the lying area would be associated with a reduction in the number of animals by - 24% and the resulting annual loss of income of EUR 96,622 per farm. The evaluation of the full costs showed that for 37 out of 44 barns, a new building would be associated with lower individual costs than a comprehensive conversion of the barns. The lowest individual costs were found on farms with more than 900 cows. In this study group, the conversion in 5 out of 13 barns or 38 % would be associated with lower individual costs than a new barn construction. The study found that improvements in husbandry conditions are necessary for most of the analyzed farms and entail significant additional costs of EUR 0.07 per kg of milk on average. The high additional costs make it difficult to achieve the goals of animal welfare and economic efficiency in free-stall barns at the same time.
Projecting EU agri-food exports amidst a free trade agreement - A study on dairy products in Japan
(2024) Berndt, Marvin; Hess, Sebastian
The export of dairy products is an important part of the marketing strategy for the German and European dairy industry, and contributes to overall revenue generation. Diversification of export markets is not only relevant for export-orientated companies, but is also important for political reasons as it reduces dependencies on certain markets and lessens the effects of potential trade conflicts. Japan is becoming an increasingly important market for exportorientated dairy companies, as domestic production is unable to meet Japanese consumers’ growing demand for dairy products. The EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement (JEFTA), which was ratified on 1 February 2019, opens up Japan’s previously closed market to European agri-food products, achieved by, among other things, lowering tariffs and introducing tariff rate quotas (TRQ). Dairy products in particular are given consideration in JEFTA, as five of the 25 TRQs introduced by Japan relate to them. The TRQ for cheese products stands out here, as it is the only TRQ that will increase beyond JEFTA’s implementation period in proportion to an increase in Japanese consumption. As a comprehensive and deep agreement, JEFTA has stimulated a large body of analyses that focus on various aspects of the potential impacts of the agreement’s full implementation. The analyses are primarily based on general computable equilibrium models (CGE), which are widely used in the analysis of free trade agreements but are subject to restrictions in terms of the data that can be used. The analyses confirm that JEFTA will have a positive influence on the development of European exports of agri-food and dairy products to Japan. However, the results of previous analyses are not satisfactory for exporters of dairy products or policymakers as important questions concerning the differentiated development of various dairy products, emerging or disappearing trade flows, and the accuracy of predictions made remain unanswered. This dissertation is dedicated to answering these outstanding questions. The first of the three research chapters, chapter 4, deals with the question of whether there will be differences in the development of future exports of various dairy products within the framework of JEFTA. This question arises because Japan has made different concessions to the EU with respect to the various dairy products under JEFTA, but dairy products have been aggregated in earlier analyses. A gravity model was used to analyse how the exports of 15 different dairy products from the EU to Japan will develop within the context of JEFTA. The analysis focuses on the effects of the TRQs granted by Japan for the export of EU dairy products. The results showed a differentiated development of future exports of dairy products: by 2033, EU exports of dairy products to Japan will increase by 82.1 % (compared with the three-year average in 2018) to USD 828 million. Exports under TRQs will increase from an initial USD 102 million in 2019 to USD 149 million in 2033, but the share of exports under TRQ will fall from 23.9 % to 17.9 %. Two thirds of the total increase in exports are accounted for by the product group “Other cheese”, which primarily includes hard cheeses such as Gouda. The extent to which future cheese exports can be increased essentially depends on how much the corresponding TRQ increases. When analysing future exports, it is important to bear in mind that exports not only change based on the volume of existing trade relations between countries (intensive margin), but that new trade relations can also emerge or disappear (extensive margin). Chapter 5 therefore analyses the extent to which the structure of EU agri-food exports, i.e. the number of agri-food trade flows of the individual EU member states, will change under JEFTA. For this purpose, an estimation procedure was developed based on the model of Felbermayr & Kohler (2010). Within the framework of this estimation procedure, predictions are possible that explicitly take into account the emergence and disappearance of trade flows between countries, i.e. changes in the extensive margin. With the full implementation of JEFTA in 2038, there is a slight decline in the volume of predicted EU agri-food exports if developments in the extensive margin are taken into account. However, the full extent of the changing trade structure only becomes clear when newly emerging and disappearing trade flows are considered separately. This shows that new trade flows to Japan of a total volume of USD 112 million emerge by 2038, while trade flows totalling USD 119 million disappear (compared with a forecast that does not take the extensive margin into account). Half of the trade flows that constitute this development are very small in volume, and account for less than USD 50,000. The export structure of dairy products from the individual EU member states is stable and shows only minor changes along the a extensive margin. The quality of the predictions about future exports is ensured by rigorously checking the validity of the selected variables of the econometric models. In chapter 6, the accuracy of the predictions of future EU agri-food exports to Japan made by gravity and CGE models is analysed using an out-of-sample comparison of the predictions of both models with actual exports to Japan in 2018. With regard to aggregated agri-food exports, both models generate statements that are close to the actual exports. For an aggregation of individual agri-food exports of EU countries by agri-food product, both models are more accurate than for an aggregation of exports by country. Variations in the statements of both models concerning actual exports in 2018 are due to differences in the results for exports of fewer products and countries. The changes in exports within the analysed CGE model rarely correspond to the actual changes in exports. The results for dairy products should be noted here, as both models are close to the actual exports of dairy products to Japan with their statements on future exports, and the change in dairy product exports within the CGE model is one of the few product groups that corresponds to the actual changes. Overall, this dissertation contributes to analyses of the impact of the implementation of JEFTA on exports of European dairy products to Japan in important ways. It shows that future exports will focus on cheese products, and that an increase in these exports will largely depend on the development of the tariff quotas granted by Japan. Compared with other agri-food products, the structure of European dairy exports is relatively stable, i.e. EU countries will export almost the same products at the time of full implementation of JEFTA as they export at the beginning of its implementation. Gravity and CGE models are suitable for making statements about future EU agri-food exports to Japan, especially in relation to dairy products.
Status-Quo und Perspektiven von Zweinutzungshühnern in Baden-Württemberg
Ergebnisse eines World-Cafés im Rahmen des 1. Dialogforums des Projektes „ZweiWert“ am 2.3.2023.
(2023) Bermejo, Gabriela; Imort-Just, Annik; Gebhardt, Beate; Hess, Sebastian; Kiefer, Lukas; Zikeli, Sabine
The motivation behind the growing interest in dual-purpose chicken is diverse. Among other things, it is driven by the prohibition of killing male chicks from laying lines, by the desire to improve animal welfare in general, and by the preservation of genetic biodiversity and a more sustainable poultry production system. The project "ZweiWert" aims to create a regional network of actors in order to build up a value chain for dual-purpose chickens in Baden-Württemberg. Following a status quo and potential analysis of the agricultural production of dual-purpose chicken, a network will be established along the entire value chain, so that a sustainable production as well as a regular supply of the resulting products can be ensured. In order to promote the exchange between actors and to be able to develop policy options and recommendations, dialogue forums will be organized during the course of the project. The first forum took place in March 2023 and brought together representatives from different sectors. After various expert contributions, participants were able to exchange views on different areas of the value chain in the format of a World Café. In particular, the topics of networking and economic efficiency, cooperation, aspects of the legal/political framework and the need for more transparency and communication were mentioned during these discussions.
Using machine learning for supply and demand predictions in the German milk market
(2023) Baaken, Dominik; Hess, Sebastian
The German milk market is driven by various ongoing trends on both the domestic supply and the international demand side. This results in increasingly volatile prices, as well as increasing production costs, and both risks continue to induce dairy farms going out of business. Therefore market participants have expressed a desire for reliable forecasting tools at the regional level in order to be able to make strategic and operational decisions with greater planning certainty. However, such forecasting models at the farm or regional level do not currently exist or are not publicly available. This dissertation fills this research gap by developing a forecasting model for predicting regional milk production in Lower Saxony. The first of four research chapters, Chapter 3, compares five different Machine Learning (ML) models and a traditional linear regression (OLS) model based on time trends, direct and indirect weather influences, and price events. The ML models show advantages in forecast accuracy, in particular ML methods outperform econometric modelling in predicting non-linear developments induced by investment. Furthermore, differences in the efficiency of the methods are apparent: while comparable estimation approaches achieve similar accuracies, the training speed of the models varies considerably. Chapter 4 presents the relationship between seasonal weather conditions and seasonal milk production. This chapter incorporates the influences of direct and indirect weather conditions as well as time and price trends into the model. A Fixed Effects (FE) estimator is used to model quarterly milk production for a panel dataset from Lower Saxony. The results mainly illustrate the influence of farm decisions on milk production, which is stronger than the influence of weather conditions. Contrary to expectations, the influence of weather conditions during the growing season cannot be significantly demonstrated. Instead, there is a positive effect of warmer and drier weather in almost all quarters except autumn. Chapters 5 and 6 shift the focus to the demand side of the German milk market, examining in particular the sale of raw milk from vending machines. As farmers seek alternative sales channels, on-farm vending machines offer an opportunity for additional income. Chapter 5 develops a forecasting model based on a nationwide survey and the Xtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) algorithm. The model achieves sufficiently accurate values to qualify as a practical tool, allowing indecisive farm managers to input their own values into the model and thus secure their investment decision. The influence of the variables on the prediction is investigated using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, indicating that sales of raw milk from vending machines are influenced less by individual marketing measures than by various location factors such as population density, proximity to a city, and location along a road with commuter traffic. It can be concluded that there is additional sales potential if farmers would be allowed to place the vending machine in an optimal location away from the farm. Chapter 6 analyses consumer behaviour through a survey in Germany, using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to model willingness to pay (WTP) and frequency of purchase. The results suggest that in this form of marketing, consumers especially value a ‘fair’ price for the producer and are less price-sensitive. On average, customers’ WTP is higher than the current milk price and varies between consumer groups. Consumers with a closer connection to milk production are willing to pay more for raw milk but purchase it less frequently. It also appears that as consumers get older, they are more likely to buy raw milk but are less willing to pay for it. Tailoring marketing activities based on consumer characteristics can increase the efficiency of additional sales channels. Overall, this dissertation demonstrates the potential applications and limitations of ML methods for considering supply and demand in the German milk market. The forecasting models can serve as a potential tool for farmers to better weight strategic and operational decisions, thus contributing to more efficient agriculture.
Zweinutzungshuhn – was ist das? Umfrage unter Landwirt*innen und Geflügelhalter*innen in Deutschland 2022
(2023) Gebhardt, Beate; Bermejo, Gabriela; Imort-Just, Annik; Kiefer, Lukas; Zikeli, Sabine; Hess, Sebastian
To comply with the ban on chick culling that has been in effect since January 2022, the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture proposes three alternatives, including the hatching of dual-purpose chickens. In addition to the breeding and economic challenges of establishing dual-purpose animals in the value chain, the inconsistent understanding of what a dual-purpose chicken actually is and how its characteristics can be successfully communicated to consumers are seen as challenges. The goal of this working report is to present what a dual-purpose chicken is and what understanding farmers have of it. The German nationwide online survey among farmers and poultry farmers regarding the understanding and future of dual-purpose chickens was conducted in autumn 2022 as part of the EIP-Agri project "ZweiWert." The EIP project titled "Building Value Chains for Dual-Purpose Chickens in Baden-Württemberg" (ZweiWert) is funded by the Ministry of Food, Rural Areas and Consumer Protection of Baden-Württemberg from 01/2022 to 12/2024. Project partners include the Naturland Association of Baden-Württemberg, several departments of the University of Hohenheim, and many partners from agricultural production and marketing.