Browsing by Person "Koch, Olef"

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The range potential of North American tree species in Europe
(2024) Albrecht, Axel Tim; Heinen, Henry; Koch, Olef; de Avila, Angela Luciana; Hinze, Jonas
European forest ecosystems are projected to change severely under climate change especially due to an anticipated decline in the distribution of major tree species in Europe. Therefore, the adaptation of European forests appears necessary and urgent. While spontaneous adaptation mechanisms bear a large self-guided potential, we focus on quantifying the potential of management-guided mechanisms. Besides other possible tree species groups for adaptation, non-native tree species from North America have a long tradition in Europe, yet their full distribution potential is not completely revealed. We applied an ensemble species distribution model approach to six North American species, using combined occurrence data from the native and naturalized ranges to gain more insights into the species suitability in the introduced area in 2070 (2061–2080) under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Our findings support the assumption that there is unreported species potential in the introduced area beyond their current distribution. Next to northeastern range shifts projected for all species, we identified Abies grandis, Liriodendron tulipifera, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia with increasing range potentials in the future. P. ponderosa and P. menziesii var. menziesii are projected to show a steady and decreased range potential under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively.
Sheltered by trees: long-term yield dynamics in temperate alley cropping agroforestry with changing water availability
(2025) Koch, Olef; Moore, Jennifer; Hörl, Jakob; Cormann, Michael; Gayler, Sebastian; Lewandowski, Iris; Marhan, Sven; Munz, Sebastian; Pflugfelder, Markus; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schneider, Julia; von Cossel, Moritz; Weinand, Tanja; Winkler, Bastian; Schweiger, Andreas H.
As warm season droughts increase in frequency due to climate change, causing severe yield losses especially among cereal crops, European agriculture is in dire need of adaptation. While agroforestry is widely regarded as a key adaptation measure, little is known on how yield performance is influenced by changing water availability in temperate regions. Therefore, we assessed the yield dynamics of five winter crops (winter wheat, triticale, winter barley, winter pea, and rapeseed) during seven growing seasons (2012 to 2023) in a well-established (since 2007) alley cropping agroforestry trial site in Southwestern Germany. The trial integrated three different agroforestry practices in a randomized block design: (i) willow short-rotation coppice, (ii) walnut trees for nut production, and (iii) diverse hedgerows. The relationship between crop yield and climatic water balance was analyzed using a linear mixed-model. In this unique long-term comparison, we demonstrate that individual alley cropping practices exhibited distinct yield patterns with increased distance to tree rows. In contrast to the willow short rotation coppice, walnut and hedgerows did not evoke significant winter crop yield declines at proximity. While in the walnut plots yields did not significantly vary with distance to tree rows, yields adjacent to hedge rows declined significantly towards the alley center. Moreover, tree rows contributed to stable crop yields under fluctuating water availability in their proximity and up to the alley center on their leeward side while yields significantly varied with changing climatic water balance on the windward side. Our results underline the potential of agroforestry to sustain yields in the face of increasingly variable water availability, further substantiating the contribution of alley cropping agroforestry for farming systems’ resilience to increasingly variable weather conditions. They moreover contribute to planning and policy support for advancing agroforestry as a climate smart solution in temperate regions.