Browsing by Subject "CGE modeling and database"

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    Domestic support payments and trade distortions : the neglected issue in global general equilibrium modeling
    (2016) Urban, Kirsten Gunver; Brockmeier, Martina
    The domestic support payments provided to agricultural producers are frequently the subject of heated debate because they distort industry and trade structures causing efficiency losses and welfare redistribution. In recent years, high-income countries have initiated several reforms of their agricultural policies to decrease such distortions. These reforms are partly enforced by the requirements to reduce distorting domestic support, as agreed upon by the World Trade Organ-ization (WTO). A prominent example of such a heavily criticized policy is the agricultural sup-port of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU). In 2005, the EU introduced the Single Farm Payment (SFP), which is supposedly decoupled from production, to decrease the production stimulating effects of its CAP, and thus to reduce the distortions caused by the domestic support payments. However, these policy instruments are also contro-versial because the extent to which decoupled payments, such as the SFP, distort trade is still unclear. Domestic support provided to agricultural producers comprises a multitude of different and country-specific agricultural policy instruments, which makes it difficult to analyze the corresponding effects on domestic and third countries’ industry structure, trade, and welfare. The most common approach for evaluating the impacts from alternative policy options is based on Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Nevertheless, the attention to detail re-garding the complex structure and country specific properties of domestic support, and in par-ticular the SFP, in such models has been largely neglected. Objective of this cumulative thesis is to analyze the effects of domestic support payments on industry output, international trade and welfare, with a particular focus on the impact of vary-ing assumptions of the SFP’s degree of decoupling in CGE modeling. Furthermore, this thesis aims to evaluate the trade-distorting effect of domestic support over time and provide a cross-countries comparison. Therefore, the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modeling framework is ex-tended to enable a much more detailed representation of domestic support payments based on the OECD Producer Support Estimate (PSE) database and considering the requirements re-garding production that trigger the eligibility for specific subsidies. Applying a complex updat-ing procedure, using the EU CAP as an example, a set of 21 databases accounting for various assumptions about the SFP’s degree of coupling to output levels is created. These databases are then used to investigate the extent to which various assumptions of the SFP’s degree of decou-pling and the corresponding modeling cause differences in results when a 100% removal of the SFP is simulated. In addition, a theoretically sound index based on the Mercantilist Trade Re-strictiveness Index (MTRI) is developed that measures the overall trade effects of domestic support in a general equilibrium framework. The new index named “MTRI of domestic support payments” (MTRI-DS) enables the measurement of the trade restrictiveness of domestic sup-port payments over time and across countries. Analyses’ results show: • Strong impacts of the SFP on factor allocation and thus industry output, market prices, trade structure and welfare in EU member states. • Significant variations due to alterations in the assumptions underlying the SFP’s de-gree of decoupling. • A decrease in trade distortion caused by the implementation of decoupled support in the EU. Thus, the MTRI-DS provides an appealing measure for evaluating the effects of agricultural policy reforms by summarizing the changes in the composition of domestic support payments, and thus, it might be of particular use in the support of trade negotiations.