Browsing by Subject "Cointegration"

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Detecting multiple structural breaks in systems of linear regression equations with integrated and stationary regressors
(2025) Schweikert, Karsten; Schweikert, Karsten; Core Facility Hohenheim & Institute of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
In this paper, we propose a two‐step procedure based on the group LASSO estimator in combination with a backward elimination algorithm to detect multiple structural breaks in linear regressions with multivariate responses. Applying the two‐step estimator, we jointly detect the number and location of structural breaks and provide consistent estimates of the coefficients. Our framework is flexible enough to allow for a mix of integrated and stationary regressors, as well as deterministic terms. Using simulation experiments, we show that the proposed two‐step estimator performs competitively against the likelihood‐based approach in finite samples. However, the two‐step estimator is computationally much more efficient. An economic application to the identification of structural breaks in the term structure of interest rates illustrates this methodology.
Modelling nonlinearities in cointegration relationships
(2017) Schweikert, Karsten; Jung, Robert
This thesis is concerned with the statistical modelling of long-run equilibrium relationships between economic variables. It comprises of four main chapters - each representing a standalone research paper. The connecting thread is the use of nonlinear cointegration models. More precisely: Chapter 2, Asymmetric price transmission in the US and German fuel markets: A quantile autoregression approach, proposes a new econometric model for asymmetric price transmissions using quantile regressions. Chapter 3, Are gold and silver cointegrated? New evidence from quantile cointegration, investigates the potentially nonlinear long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. Chapter 4, Testing for cointegration with SETAR adjustment in the presence of structural breaks, develops a new cointegration test with SETAR adjustment allowing for the presence of structural breaks in the equilibrium equation. Chapter 5, A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration, revisits the globalization-regionalization hypothesis for the world crude oil using a Markov-switching vector error correction model.
Testing for cointegration with threshold adjustment in the presence of structural breaks
(2018) Schweikert, Karsten
In this paper, we develop new threshold cointegration tests with SETAR and MTAR adjustment allowing for the presence of structural breaks in the equilibrium equation. We propose a simple procedure to simultaneously estimate the previously unknown breakpoint and test the null hypothesis of no cointegration. Thereby, we extend the well-known residual-based cointegration test with regime shift introduced by Gregory and Hansen (1996a) to include forms of nonlinear adjustment. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics and demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the tests in a series of Monte Carlo experiments. We find a substantial decrease of power of the conventional threshold cointegration tests caused by a shift in the slope coefficient of the equilibrium equation. The proposed tests perform superior in these situations. An application to the ‘rockets and feathers’ hypothesis of price adjustment in the US gasoline market provides empirical support for this methodology.