Browsing by Subject "Demographie"
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Publication Does size matter? Implications of household size for economic growth and convergence(2018) Prettner, Klaus; Geloso, Vincent; Kufenko, VadimWe assess the effects of changes in household size on the long-run evolution of living standards and on cross-country convergence. When the observed changes in average household size across countries are taken into consideration, growth in living standards is slower throughout the 20th century as compared to a measure based on per capita GDP. Furthermore, the speed of divergence between different countries be- fore 1950 is faster and the speed of convergence after 1950 is slower after adjusting for the evolution in household size.Publication Essays on demographic change and R&D-based economic growth(2020) Tscheuschner, Paul; Prettner, KlausThis dissertation analyzes the economic growth effects of demographic change embedded in a framework of endogenous R&D. Substantial changes in fertility and longevity are the two main demographic features that all industrialized countries have experienced during the twentieth century and are still experiencing until today. Although the individual gains of higher life expectancy and better education, initiated by a quantity-quality tradeoff, are huge, there exist concerns about the macroeconomic effects. To improve the understanding about the aforementioned relationships, this work extends the existing literature on the growth effects of population aging by 1) introducing exogenous longevity into a growth framework with vertical innovations; 2) by endogenizing life expectancy in a growth framework with horizontal innovations; and 3) by examining the growth effects of basic scientific knowledge over the very long run. Chapter two contains the first paper titled “Longevity-induced Vertical Innovation and the Tradeoff Between Life and Growth”, which is joint work with Annarita Baldanzi and Klaus Prettner. In this paper, the positive effect of a longer retirement period on individual savings is utilized. A higher exogenous probability to survive to old age raises savings, placing a downward pressure on the market interest rate. On the production side, a lower interest rate increases the present value of holding a patent, which, in turn, makes R&D more profitable. As a result, R&D employment increases, leading to a higher frequency of quality improving ideas and, with it, faster economic growth. It is shown that the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth is strictly positive. In a welfare analysis, the utility gains of living longer are disentangled from the longevity-induced utility gains of higher consumption. The analysis concludes that the direct welfare gains of higher life expectancy, usually, outweigh the indirect welfare gains of faster economic growth. Chapter three contains a single-authored paper and is titled “Endogenous Life Expectancy and R&D-based Economic Growth”. As the title suggests, life expectancy is endogenized and increases in the public resources devoted toward health. Again, the longevity-saving-channel is present. Additionally, a quantity-quality tradeoff is introduced, such that parents have to decide on the number of children to have and on the childrens level of education. Besides the positive saving effect, life expectancy impacts positively on the labor force participation rate and negatively on the fertility rate. The reason is that adults need to work more (at the expense of having fewer children), to compensate for a prolonged retirement period. The feedback effects with production, characterized by horizontal innovation, are then analyzed in a calibrated version of the model. Using U.S. data, the model suggests that the overall effect of life expectancy on economic growth is positive and amounts to 11.9 % of the increases in the real GDP p.c. over the period 1960-2017. From a welfare perspective, the results indicate that the growth-maximizing size of the health care sector might lie beyond what is observed in most industrialized countries, nowadays. The finding that the size of the health care sector that maximizes life expectancy is substantially larger than the growth-maximizing size supports the view to not only consider the growth effects of health care. Chapter four contains the third paper which is co-authored with Klaus Prettner and is titled “The Scientific Revolution and Its Role in the Transition to Sustained Economic Growth”. Basic scientific knowledge is introduced as a necessary input in applied R&D and increases in the number of tinkerers in the economy and in their education. For low levels of development, fertility is high and educational investments are zero. Once income surpasses a certain threshold, education turns positive. Together with the consequent fertility transition, this marks the takeoff to sustained economic growth. It is shown that the growth rate of as well as the access to basic scientific knowledge is crucial in determining the timing and the magnitude of the takeoff. For low growth rates and low access, the takeoff is delayed by up to one generation because applied R&D takes longer to become profitable. In the extreme case of zero basic scientific knowledge, no takeoff might occur at all. The results improve the understanding of economic growth processes over the very long run and provide one possible explanation why some regions experienced the takeoff to sustained economic growth earlier than others.Publication The economics of elderly care(2015) Bauer, Jan Michael; Sousa-Poza, AlfonsoLonger life expectancy and low fertility rates increase the share of elderly among the population of most industrialized countries. This demographic change affects the economy and the society and is most likely to proceed in the future. Therefore, policy makers and families need to be aware of the implications associated with an aging population. One particularly great challenge comes with the rising number of fragile elderly people, for which most countries are currently unable to provide sufficient care solutions. Germany, for instance, is facing a constantly rising share of people in need that mostly receive informal care from friends and family. Public support promotes these informal care arrangements (§3 SGB XI) and endorses care receivers to remain in their domestic environment. Even though such informal care arrangements are preferred by most families, caregiving can have a large impact on the caregiver’s life. Policy makers need to measure and incorporate these outcomes in order to provide suitable aid for caring families and, thereby, ensuring sustainable and dignified population aging. This dissertation consists of three academic papers and contributes to the topic in several ways: the first paper reviews the recent literature on the effects of informal caregiving on the caregiver and, thereby, assesses the opportunity costs associated with informal care provision. Further, we evaluated the methodology that is commonly used and identify certain risk groups as well as arrangements that are particularly burdensome. The second paper takes a specific look at the subjective well-being of caregivers in Germany and analyzes effects associated with providing care. In contrast to most prior studies, the paper uses large population-based longitudinal data, accounts for unobserved heterogeneity, and estimates the relationship with different methodologies. The paper further values well-being losses monetarily, which allows a comparison to formal care alternatives. The third paper provides new insights on individual selection behavior in the market for supplemental health insurances. This is an increasingly popular way to insure against long-term care needs, a risk not fully covered despite a statutory long-term care insurance. Private insurance markets are fragile in the presences of asymmetric information and, therefore, might not be a sustainable solution to cover the increasing risks of an aging society. We developed an innovative approach to disentangle different selection behaviors in a heterogeneous sample and identify asymmetric information exemplarily for the market of supplemental dental insurance, despite no risk-coverage correlation for the aggregated sample.Publication The tradeoff between fertility and education : evidence from the Korean development path(2014) Lee, Joongho; Jun, BogangUnified Growth Theory suggests the demographic transition and the associated rise in human capital formation were critical forces in the transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern economic growth. This paper provides empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis based on the Korean industrialization in the late 20th century. Using a fixed effects model and a fixed effect two-stage least squares model, this study exploits variations in fertility and in human capital formation across regions in Korea over the period 1970 to 2010. This analysis finds a virtuous cycle, where technological progress increased the demand for human capital, leading to an increase in the level of education and, in turn, to a demographic transition. This establishes the existence of a quantity–quality tradeoff on the Korean development path.