Browsing by Subject "Fiskalpolitik"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2

A monetary-fiscal theory of prices in modern DSGE models
(2018) Schröder, Christian Philipp; Spahn, Peter
Starting with the Eurozone crisis in 2010, fiscal variables such as the government budget position and public debt of certain member countries as well as the design of the European Monetary Union as a whole came under close scrutiny again. Furthermore, as a consequence of the global financial crisis, the economic profession faced accusations that, using the established ‘workhorse models,’ it was not able to provide answers to the pertinent questions of the time. From the perspective of economic theory, two main issues can be outlined against this background: (1) How do the so-called DSGE (dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium) models work which form a quasi-consensus in practice, research, and teaching nowadays? This relates especially to determinacy, that is, the mathematical property of being able to draw unique conclusions from a given set of assumptions. (2) What roles do the main fields of macroeconomic policy---fiscal and monetary policy---play in this? The exposition of these items is carried out within a formally consistent theoretical model which adheres to common standards and strikes a balance between staying general enough for a broad range of approaches and being sufficiently specific to yield tangible results. Following a brief introduction, Chapter 2 presents a microfounded (‘baseline’) general-equilibrium model that acts as a foundation for subsequent analysis. The only substantial exception is the excursus in Chapter 3. It deals with interactions between the entities of the consolidated government sector, namely the treasury and the central bank, and in doing so also touches on traditional models which cannot be reconciled entirely with modern theory. One of the main aspects is the “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic” that describes the long-standing explanation for fiscally induced inflation. The fourth chapter then takes up the baseline model and ‘closes’ it by defining monetary as well as fiscal policy, both of which can be active (that is, dominant) or passive. Resulting from this classification are two stable macroeconomic regimes (monetary or fiscal dominance) plus two undesirable outcomes (explosive instability or indeterminacy of central model variables). Monetary dominance is tantamount to the prevailing world view—central banks can independently pursue a measure of price stability while governments have to follow a sustainable (Ricardian) fiscal policy—whereas fiscal dominance gives rise to a “fiscal theory of the price level” in which the treasury sets budget surpluses without regard for other variables and monetary policy can be an implicit accomplice at most. This latter regime ultimately puts price stability into the hands of the treasury. Initially, the only public liability is debt (there is no money at this stage); however, the is model is able to determine unique price levels in the stable regimes. Chapter 5 introduces several isolated complications to the model described so far. One is the role of money, especially in the fiscalist model variant; it shows that the main results remain unchanged if monetary policy is conducted via money-supply instead of interest-rate policy. Further considerations are the zero lower bound on interest rates (in a graphic analysis) as well as limits to public-sector liabilities. Subsequently, Chapter 6 applies the baseline model of Chapter 2 to the open economy—more precisely, a monetary union consisting of two countries. Since monetary policy is supranational here, outcomes crucially depend on national fiscal policies. While the baseline model assumes flexible prices, Chapter 7 adds the considerable complication of nominally rigid prices. A mostly ‘plain-vanilla’ New-Keynesian model emerges which, following common practice, is then linearized and simulated in Matlab/Dynare. At the core of the analysis lie the two stable regimes carved out in Chapter 4. The central implications of the monetary-fiscal theory derived so far are adjusted gradually, but remain in place generally. Towards the end, the thesis highlights empirical issues (verifiability of the regimes, historical case studies). Finally, the results obtained beforehand culminate in a comprehensive discussion of the monetary-fiscal theory, including a distinction from traditional approaches. Chapter 10 concludes.
Efficiency of selected fiscal policy instruments
(2017) Dekker, Vincent; Dwenger, Nadja
The thesis at hand intends to contribute to the understanding of behavioural responses to taxation by dedicating each chapter to the analysis of a different fiscal policy instrument. Chapter 2 focusses on the individual tax system in the Netherlands that exhibits tax brackets, as opposed to a smooth progressive tax system. The aim is to uncover the extent of behavioural responses to the kinks in the budget set that are created by the non-linear increases in the marginal tax rates at the tax brackets cut-off points. From the analysis it becomes evident that individuals react to jumps in the marginal tax rate. First, an extension to the classical bunching approach introduced by Saez (2010) and extended by Chetty et al. (2011) is provided. Because individuals face optimisation frictions, perfect bunching at the kink as predicted by theory is not observable. Rather, a window around the kink, known as the bunching window, is used in the analysis. Where prior research had relied on visual inspection to determine the size of the bunching window, a data-driven procedure is proposed instead, which is shown to be robust to variations in various parameters and takes away the researchers discretion in that matter. Thus, a methodological contribution to a comparably young, but growing field of research is made. Chapter 3 discusses the implications of the introduction of transfer pricing regulations (TPR) on intermediate goods trade. The chapter thus analyses an anti-avoidance measure implemented by many governments in recent years and evaluates the consequences for allocative and distributional efficiency. The empirical literature has shown that multinational enterprises (MNEs) utilise transfer prices to shift profits into (out of) low-tax (high-tax) jurisdictions. Evidence was given in prior literature that MNEs react sensitively to the introduction of TPR in reducing (increasing) their prices when they were overvalued (undervalued) before the implementation of regulations. Surprisingly, a reaction in quantities, i.e. shifts in production and trade flows, had not been analysed in the literature before. The results indicate a substantial quantity reaction and also a pricing reaction, which is shown to be in line with the literature. This suggests that before the introduction of TPR, firms shift more exports to low tax countries and less exports to high tax countries for tax optimising purposes. Following the introduction of TPR, especially the reduction in quantities traded with low tax countries is identified. Chapter 4 deals with a recently developed tax incentive for research and development (R&D), namely the intellectual property box (IP-Box). Said to foster innovation by the implementing governments, critics accuse the IP-Box regimes of providing yet another profit shifting opportunity for multinational enterprises (MNEs). The study assesses the implications that the introduction of IP-Box regimes has on innovation and shifting behaviour, in order to judge on the efficiency and effectiveness of such a policy instrument. Whilst most R&D incentives are ex ante tax incentives, i.e. incentives that act during the innovation process and before the innovative product was developed, IP-Boxes are an ex post tax incentive, thus only benefiting successful R&D. The analysis attempts to explore whether IP-Boxes are a local innovation enhancing device, as propagated by the countries implementing IP-Boxes, or merely facilitate profit shifting for MNEs by offering a substantially lower tax rate on income from intellectual property. The results clearly show that the shifting channel dominates the home innovation channel. Some evidence is found that home developed patents were crowded out by foreign developed and subsequently shifted patents. The total number of patents does not seem to react to the introduction of IP-Boxes, thus even questioning the global innovation enhancing effect of IP-Boxes. Given the nature of the country level data, it is not possible to investigate the different designs of IP-Boxes more thoroughly, although the implementation of a development condition should be part of every IP-Box regime. This ensures that, at least from a global or even European perspective, innovation must take place somewhere.