Browsing by Subject "Handelsabkommen"

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    Assessing the impact of data disaggregation level and non-tariff barriers in regional trade agreements utilizing the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework
    (2015) Bektasoglu, Beyhan; Brockmeier, Martina
    Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been extensively used by economists for trade policy analysis due to their ability to quantify the impact of a shock on an entire economy. Providing economy-wide numerical results, and including linkages and interactions among main economic variables, agents, sectors, and regions make CGE models preferable in addressing a wide range of economic problems. Among various comparative static, multi-sector and multi-region general equilibrium models, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) is one of the most extensively used. However, despite the widespread use of CGE models in trade policy analysis, there are still debates among researchers about the right choice of the model to apply. The discussions are frequently about the data aggregation level. The degree of data disaggregation within the CGE models has direct impact on policy simulation results stemming from the aggregation bias. Against this background, one of the focal points of this dissertation is the impact of aggregation bias occurring in GTAP simulations and the reasons behind this bias. Another focal point of this dissertation is the estimation of the ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) on food and agricultural sector through gravity approach and their subsequent implementa-tion into the GTAP framework for thorough analysis of regional trade agreements (RTAs). With the increas-ing number of economic integration agreements and multilateral trade negotiations of the World Trade Or-ganization, the importance of import tariffs has declined, while that of NTBs has risen, since NTBs are hard-er to address due to their complex structure. However, the welfare gains through the reduction of restrictive NTBs due to RTAs are not negligible. We either use the border effect approach or the free trade agreement (FTA) approach to identify NTBs in the trade between respective countries. NTBs are originally not consid-ered in the standard GTAP framework. However, they can be implemented into the GTAP model in several ways (i.e., as export taxes, import tariffs or as efficiency losses) depending on the policies with which they are related. Due to our focus on the agro-food sector in our articles and the predominance of technical NTBs on this sector, we mainly account for the efficiency-decreasing effect of NTBs. Hence, we model a majority of them using the efficiency approach. For the remaining part of trade costs we utilize the import-tariff ap-proach. In this context, the objective of this cumulative dissertation is threefold: (1) to reveal the impact of data ag-gregation level in trade policy analysis with the GTAP framework, (2) to expose the importance of NTBs in the evaluation of RTAs, (3) to demonstrate the effect of data aggregation level in gravity estimates of NTBs and its subsequent impact on trade policy simulations. Hence, this dissertation consists of four articles which are published or submitted to journals. In our first article entitled "Model Structure or Data Aggregation Level: Which Leads to Greater Bias of Results?", we focus on two fundamental characteristics of CGE models, i.e., the model structure and the data aggregation level. Our results demonstrate that there are substantial differences in results due to the use of GE or PE model structure or data disaggregation level. However, the deviations in results caused by sectoral breakdown are much more pronounced than those stemmed from the model structure. While the economy-wide setting of GE models causes differences across the results of GE and PE models, tariff averaging and false competition ground the reason for deviations in results due to data aggregation level. Following our theoretical work in the first article, in our second article, "Moving toward the EU or the Mid-dle East? An Assessment of Alternative Turkish Foreign Policies Utilizing the GTAP Framework", we focus on more applied analysis. In this article, we analyze Turkeys two different policy options by considering the simultaneous elimination of NTBs and import tariffs in the case of Turkeys membership either to the Euro-pean Union (EU) or Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA). For both experiments, gains from NTB re-moval outweigh the gains due to the elimination of import tariffs. Hence, based on our simulation results, we are able to confirm the importance of NTBs in the evaluation of RTAs. After indicating the importance of aggregation bias in our first article and confirming the impact of NTBs in the evaluation of RTAs in the second, in our third article, "The Effect of Aggregation Bias: An NTB-Modelling Analysis of Turkeys Agro-Food Trade with the EU", we expound the magnitude of aggregation bias in the calculation of AVEs of NTBs. Our estimations demonstrate that using aggregated gravity model to estimate the AVEs of NTBs results in overestimation of trade costs. Hence, the transfer of overestimated trade costs to the GTAP model also leads to overestimation in the simulation results of the EUs extension to include Turkey. Our last article, "Keep Calm and Disaggregate: The Importance of Agro-Food Sector Disaggregation in CGE Analysis of TTIP", is designed as a follow-up to our first article; however, it also includes the key find-ings from the second and third articles. We create five different versions of the GTAP database, which are aggregated at different sector levels. Thereafter, we simulate the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partner-ship (TTIP) between the EU and the United States (US). In addition to what we constructed in our first arti-cle, in this article we also consider the reduction NTBs for each version of the GTAP database. Hence, in addition to averaging of tariffs and false competition, estimation of AVEs of NTBs at different data aggrega-tion levels also has an impact on deviations in simulation results across five versions of the GTAP database. As we have presented in our articles, the use of higher data disaggregation level commonly results in greater welfare and trade effects, but cases also exit in which more aggregated version of the GTAP database leads to larger changes in simulation results. The atheoretic method of trade-weighted tariff aggregation given in the GTAP database is the trigger of lower trade and welfare effects. By calculating of the Mercantalistic Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI) for bilateral import tariffs, and comparing them with the initial trade-weighted tariffs in the GTAP database, we are able to verify the underestimation effect of "tariff averaging". In contrast, "false competition" causes overestimation of trade and welfare effects when higher level of data aggregation is used in the simulations. False competition arises in such situations when competition for a particular subsector does not initially exist between two exporting countries, but this subsector can be aggre-gated with others in which competition actually exists. Hence, this situation leads to wrongly applied weights, and results in false substitution effects, which causes overestimation of results. The estimation of AVEs of NTBs at higher data aggregation levels also reduces the variation across sectors, and commonly leads to higher trade and welfare results. However, the contribution of tariffs to the deviation of results across versions is generally higher than the contribution of NTBs. Hence, based on our simulation results, we exhibit that aggregation of tariffs is more important than the NTBs. This dissertation concludes that neither the impact of aggregation bias nor the importance of NTBs in the evaluation of RTAs on trade policy analysis is negligible. There are considerable differences across simula-tion results depending on the data aggregation level used. The differences in results occur both in the estima-tion of trade costs of NTBs and also in the policy simulation results on the GTAP level. Hence, the selection of data aggregation level can be critical for thorough analysis of trade agreements, especially for the detailed examination of policy changes at the product level. Aggregation bias cannot be entirely overcome in econo-metric estimates or in CGE analysis; however, the extent of its possible effect can be born in mind. Depend-ing on the aim of the policy analysis, the appropriate level of data disaggregation should be chosen.
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    North-South trade agreements and the quality of institutions: panel data evidence
    (2018) Schneider, Sophie Therese
    Since 1990, not only the number of signed preferential trade agreements (PTAs) has increased, but also their depth. That means, PTAs include comprehensive rules, which go way beyond tariff reductions, such as property rights, competition or investment provisions. This paper argues that especially in North-South agreements there is a diffusion of institutional quality from developed to developing countries. First, a PTA may affect institutions because it can serve as a network for political exchange and second, the regulations and commitments stipulated in it may affect local institutions in the South. I empirically investigate if there are positive effects of being a member in a PTA on the quality of institutions in developing countries by accounting for the number and the depth of PTAs using the Design of Trade Agreements (DESTA) database, established by Dür, Baccini and Elsig (2014). I create a large panel data set covering 32 years to account for endogeneity of several controls. The results support the hypothesis that deep PTAs lead to an improved quality of institutions in the South. The results differ with respect to the type of agreement and region.
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    Trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreementbetween Japan and the United States
    (2018) Walter, Timo
    This paper deals with the trade and welfare effects of a potential bilateral trade agreement between the US and Japan. A possible agreement is currently being discussed between Washington and Tokyo, although, there is also the alternative for the US government joining Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Based on the theoretical model of Caliendo and Parro (2015) I analyse the welfare gains of such a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) in the style of Aichele et al. (2014). In particular, I simulate three scenarios with different levels of integration: The reduction of tariffs only, the scenario of a shallow FTA, and a deep FTA. In addition, the paper compares the trade and welfare changes of a deep FTA to the welfare effects of TPP. The findings are that Japan has the highest welfare gains with a FTA (0.085%), whilst the United States benefits the most from TPP with a welfare gain of 0.05%.
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    Trade effects of the Europe agreements
    (2006) Spies, Julia; Marques, Helena
    The eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) brought and will bring full membership to countries whose trade barriers with the EU had to a large extent already been removed under Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) during the 1990s. We employ a theory-based new version of a gravity equation, whose specification allows for an assessment of the impact of the arrangements on extra- and intra-group imports. We find robust evidence that the agreements have substantially increased intra-group trade, in the case of the Czech and Slovak Republic at the expense of the Rest of the World (ROW).
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    Trade integration, global capital flows and the link to institutional quality from a North-South perspective
    (2020) Schneider, Sophie Therese; Jung, Benjamin
    This doctoral thesis is a cumulative dissertation containing three essays. In the first essay, I create a panel data set of North-South preferential trade agreements (PTAs) building on the comprehensive database on the design of trade agreements (DESTA). I analyze the effects of the depth and number of PTAs signed on the quality of institutions in developing countries, the global South, measured as the political risk component investment profile of the ICRG database. I show that the system GMM is the appropriate estimator to apply for my empirical analysis to account for various sources of endogeneity. I show that signing deep North-South PTAs positively affects institutions in the South. The results differ with respect to the type of agreement and region. The second essay deals with the determinants of PTAs focusing on institutional distance as a driving factor and regarding PTAs as an instrument to compensate for missing institutions. I argue that the effect of institutional distance is specifically important (1) in a North-South trade relationship where institutional distance is particularly large and (2) if countries trade a large share of contract-intensive goods. For this analysis I create a panel data set including a large number of developing countries and a variable to measure the difference of the share of bilateral contract-intensive exports and show that a linear probability model for discrete choice panel data is a suitable estimator to be used. I address endogeneity using an instrument variable (IV) approach. I show that institutional distance promotes the formation of PTAs. Comparing this effect for North-North, North-South, and South-South country pairs reveals that the positive effect of institutional distance on the probability of PTA formation is specifically high for the formation of North-South PTAs. Furthermore, I find that the effect is nonlinear and that trading contract-intensive goods reinforces the positive effect of institutional distance for the formation of North-South PTAs and may offset negative effects. Robustness checks with regard to the underlying sample reveal that the effect of institutional distance is driven by North-South relationships involving the EU. Essay 3 is dedicated to global investment flows and aims at deriving a global model to determine the factors of foreign direct investment (FDI) by considering investment flows between and within North and South. We empirically estimate and assess global FDI models, namely the gravity and knowledge capital (KK) model, based on the new CDIS data set by the IMF, which includes a large number of developing and transition countries. This allows us to detect potential vertical motives for FDI and to address the global trend of increasing FDI from and to the global South. We find the gravity model to achieve the best theory-consistent out-of-sample prediction, particularly when parameter heterogeneity of South and North FDI is allowed for. Controlling for surrounding market potential is important to recover the horizontal effect of the gravity model. Including institutional, cultural, or financial factors does not improve the model performance distinctly although results for those variables are mostly in line with theory.