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Publication Development potential of smallholder livestock production in Zambia(2019) Lubungu, Mary; Birner, ReginaThe continued increase in the demand for livestock products in Africa presents a development opportunity for smallholder livestock farmers. If this opportunity is harnessed well, it can contribute to rural poverty reduction. However, translating this opportunity into reality requires unlocking smallholder farmers productivity potential, considering that livestock performs numerous functions beyond just serving as an income source. To support this development opportunity for smallholder livestock farmers, it is essential to enable a large share of small-scale farmers to engage in livestock farming and increase the productivity of smallholder livestock farming systems in an equitable and environmentally sustainable way. Taking Zambia as an example, this thesis aims to identify and analyze factors that have been obstacles to livestock development. Based on two rounds of panel data collected from smallholder farm households in Zambia, it was observed that the share of farmers who keep cattle is limited and that farmers move in and out of cattle production, despite the many benefits that livestock offers. Therefore, there is a need to identify what enables and disables farmers to keep livestock. There is also a need to identify the driving factors of livestock herd growth since small herd size is one factor that prevents farmers from participating in the market for livestock products. To better understand how livestock production systems can be developed equitably, it is also necessary to understand the gender dimensions of livestock farming to ensure that women will not be left out of the growth process. Moreover, to be able to support livestock production effectively, it is also essential to identify the governance challenges that are likely to occur in the implementation of livestock development interventions. Against this backdrop, the thesiss overall goal was to identify options to promote sustainable livestock production systems. The thesis focused on cattle, which is the most valuable large asset among smallholder farmers in Zambia. The thesis had four specific objectives, which are addressed in separate chapters: (i) To unravel the mystery of moving in and out of cattle keeping; (ii) to identify the factors determining the livestock herd size among smallholder farmers in Zambia; (iii) to understand the gender dimensions in cattle production; and (iv) To uncover the governance challenges of implementing the vaccination campaigns in Zambia To achieve these objectives, a mixed-method research approach was used, involving both quantitative and qualitative methods. The quantitative analysis was based on an existing household survey data set, which is representative at the national level. Various econometric techniques were applied, including probit, correlated random effect, and zero-one inflated beta regressions. For the qualitative component of the study, a combination of empirical data collection methods was applied, which included focus group discussions, individual household in-depth interviews, key informant interviews, and a participatory mapping method called Process-Net-Map. Analytical methods for the qualitative component of the study included content analysis as well as causal narratives. The analysis showed that moving in or out of cattle production is influenced by human population growth, climatic variability, livestock population density, male household labor availability, and institutional support. The findings indicate that household-level factors and regional factors and their interaction influence households ability to take up cattle production and continue this activity over time. One can derive from this analysis that regional incentives, such as an increase in the demand for draft power, are important to encourage cattle production, but household level challenges, such as labor availability, need to be addressed, as well. The analysis also indicated that loss of cattle due to death, rather than cattle sales, was a major reason for the reduction in herd size. Mortality rates were found to be responsive to animal health interventions, which underlines the need for effective animal health services as a precondition for improved productivity in livestock production. The analysis also showed that farmers mainly increased their herd size by keeping the off-spring of their herd rather than by buying animals. Low conception rates due to limited feed resources during the dry season were identified as a major obstacle to a faster increase in herd size. Farmers who were able to enter into cattle production typically used their income from crop farming to acquire the first stock. This finding indicates that, in the absence of well-functioning rural financial markets, smallholders who cannot generate a surplus from crop farming will not be able to move into cattle production. The analysis also threw light on the factors that enable women to own cattle. These factors included financial independence and the accumulation of other assets. Women were also more likely to own cattle in households with larger herd sizes. Perceived intra-household conflicts were identified as an obstacle to female cattle ownership. Considering the important role of livestock support programs, an in-depth analysis of a program was carried out that supported livestock vaccination campaigns. The Process Net-Map method served to identify the governance challenges faced by the program. The findings established that the complexity of the procurement procedure, the limited capacity of the central actors, and a lack of urgency from influential actors resulted in procurement delays, and a diversion of funds caused delays in the release of funds. Lack of influence by the farmers also contributed to the inefficiency of the implementation procedure. The findings are likely to be relevant for implementing other livestock development programs that involve the distribution of publicly procured inputs. Overall, it was concluded that the problems identified in the thesis need to be addressed. Otherwise, smallholder livestock farmers will not be able to exploit the opportunity of rising demand for livestock products. A number of policy recommendations were derived from the findings. These include the provision of institutional and technical support for the intensification of smallholder cattle production, strategies to bridge the gender gap in cattle production in a way that does not result in household conflicts; and innovative approaches to improve the efficiency in the implementation of livestock development programs.