Browsing by Subject "Monte Carlo simulation"

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Computational sizing of solar powered peanut oil extraction in Senegal using a synthetic load profile
(2024) Bonzi, Joévin Wiomou; Romuli, Sebastian; Diouf, Djicknoum; Piriou, Bruno; Meissner, Klaus; Müller, Joachim
This paper presents an approach for sizing a hybrid photovoltaic system for a small-scale peanut oil processing company (Yaye Aissatou, Passy) in rural Senegal using a synthetic load profile. In this study, a predictive model of the electrical load of a service-based plant oil processing company was developed through a diagnosis, to evaluate the extraction process. The mass and energy balance were measured, and the process was implemented into MATLAB Simulink. The simulated load profile was implemented in HOMER Pro and the characteristics of the most profitable hybrid systems were identified. The results showed that the lowest net present cost over 25 years was found with a PV/battery/grid-system with 18.6 kWp solar panels, 16 kWh of storage, and an initial investment of 20,019 €. Compared to a grid-only scenario, this solution reduces the net present cost from an initial 72,163 € to 31,603 €, the operating cost from 3675 € per year to 590 € per year, and the cost of energy from 0.29 to 0.13 €/kWh. The renewable fraction of the proposed system is 90.0 % while the expected payback period is 6.2 years. The study demonstrates the economic feasibility of using solar energy for plant oil processing.
Risk analysis of the biogas project
(2023) Nurgaliev, Timur; Koshelev, Valery; Müller, Joachim
The dynamic model of the biogas project was created with changing parameter values over time and compared to the static model of the same project based on constant values of the same parameters. For the dynamic model, the same methods were used to evaluate the biogas project as for the static model to calculate substrate mix volumes, costs, farm production volumes, number of biogas plant equipment, driers, and other numerical characteristics of the farm. Project risks were evaluated by the sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The study was conducted for four scenarios regarding the substrate mix structure and the possibility of selling electricity on the market. In the scenarios, the scale of the project was determined by the size and structure of agricultural and biogas production. The results have shown that when only wastes are used as substrates, net present values (NPVs) of the project are equal to 29.45 and 56.50 M RUB in dependence on the possibility to sell electricity on the market. At the same time, when the substrate mix is diversified, the project NPVs are equal to 89.17 and 186.68 M RUB depending on the ability to sell all the produced electricity to the common power grid. The results of the sensitivity analysis defined that the values of elasticity coefficients are less than 3.14%. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation have shown a probability distribution of positive NPVs for each scenario. This study was conducted to make recommendations for business and municipalities.