Browsing by Subject "Trade liberalisation"

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    Comparative advantage of Vietnam's rice sector under different liberalisation scenarios: a policy analysis matrix (PAM) study
    (2004) Nguyen, Manh Hai; Heidhues, Franz
    The rapidly changing global economic environment and domestic economic reforms in Viet-nam have brought the issue of comparative advantage of the rice sector to the forefront. In recent years, Vietnam has had to compete in an increasingly competitive rice export market. This paper examines the fluctuations in the comparative advantage of Vietnamese rice production based on different scenarios of trade liberalisation and economic reform in Viet-nam. To do this, a Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) was used in conjunction with an econo-metric model. The study involved simulation of a large number of scenarios of trade liberalisation and macroeconomic reform, using variations in a single factor and in a group of factors such as product price and input costs, i.e., the price of imported fertilisers, land, water and labour costs, etc. The empirical results show that in 1998 (the baseline scenario), the comparative advantage in rice was relatively high and that the use of domestic resources ? i.e., land, labour and water ? was efficient in economic terms. The estimated DRC elasticities in respect of the world rice price and the shadow exchange rate in 1998 showed a considerably improved com-parative advantage. The estimated DRC elasticities for land rent, the social costs of labour, the import price of fertilisers and irrigation water charges were small in absolute values indi-cating small and negative impacts on comparative advantage with a rise in these prices. The results of sensitivity analyses revealed that the comparative advantage of rice is very sensitive to changes in its export price. In addition, the exchange rate and land rent are also important determinants of the rice sector?s comparative advantage in Vietnam. Other empirical results show that Vietnam is still likely to retain its comparative advantage in rice production in the next decade; however, its comparative advantage might be seriously affected or even dis-appear entirely if Vietnam is exposed to a number of unfavourable economic conditions simultaneously. The major recommendation of this paper is that production should be diversified, with appropriate agricultural policy support, within a broader framework of macroeconomic transformation and trade liberalisation.
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    Village level impacts of trade reform in China
    (2011) Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Grethe, Harald
    During the past decades, China has carried out ambitious economic reforms. The reforms have resulted in strong economic growth and considerable reductions in poverty. The current situation, however, is also characterised by rising tensions within the country, caused, among others, by rural-urban and inland-coastal disparities. In this situation, rural-urban migration occupies central stage, both for the livelihoods of rural households and for the outcome of further policy reforms. In this context, trade liberalisation for a number of reasons can be expected to play an important role for the future development of poverty and inequality in the country. Against this background, the present work analyses and assesses the impacts of further trade liberalisation efforts on a rural community in south-western China. Recognising the importance of these issues, emphasis is put on poverty, inequality and rural-urban labour migration. Subject of the analysis is a village located in one of the less developed counties of Guizhou province. Thereby, this village level case study aims not only at shedding light on the impacts of future trade reforms on this particular village, but also has the objective of providing more general insights into the mechanisms which are at work when trade policies are brought down to a local level. The study seeks to promote an enhanced understanding of relevant processes in similar settings, allowing for improved assessments in the field of development oriented trade policy analysis. The objectives of the study are achieved by the application of a village computable general equilibrium model embedded into a macro-microsimulation framework. In this framework, aggregate results from a national level CGE study of unilateral trade liberalisation in China are administered as a policy shock to the village model, which offers a highly disaggregated picture of the village economy and allows for a detailed analysis of the impacts of the reform. The village model which is a CGE representation of the village economy forms the core part of the present study. The households which make up the village community are depicted by six representative household groups, each of them represented by an agricultural household model. The six groups stratify the village population by household demographics and income levels, thus distinguishing the households by their migration behaviour and by relative poverty. Each representative household can carry out up to four productive activities: agriculture, formal and informal local off-farm work as well as migration. Agricultural production is modelled with a nested Leontief-Cobb-Douglas technology. Household consumption is represented by a per-capita LES which includes self-consumption of agricultural output, purchased goods as well as leisure. By incorporating the assumption of a perfectly neoclassical village land market, the model makes a step towards the modelling of land rental transactions which take place within the village. The land market links the households together and creates local general-equilibrium effects which greatly affect the outcome of the policy reform. The salient feature of the village model is a novel approach towards the modelling of the households' labour allocation behaviour, and in particular the migration behaviour. The approach takes into account household preferences towards work in different types of employment as well as feedback links between household migration and consumption demand. This is achieved by the assumption of a composite utility function, which defines the behaviour of each household in the model. The composite utility function consists of a consumption utility function, which captures utility created by commodity consumption, and a labour utility function, which allows to account for the utility or disutility associated with the participation in different types of employment. By considering the disutility arising from certain employment options, the current work offers an important contribution to the methodological development of agricultural household and village equilibrium modelling. It provides a modelling framework, which paves the way for similar applications in different settings and opens an interesting field for future applications, which may also extend to levels of higher regional aggregation. At the same time, the model constitutes a highly valuable tool for the analysis of the migration behaviour of rural households under different policy scenarios along the lines of household demographics and income levels. Thereby, the availability of transparent information on socio-economic characteristics of the household groups, the remittances behaviour as well as the disutility connotations of migration offer great support to such efforts. Not least, it allows deriving theoretically sound hypotheses on the migration behaviour of rural households in different policy situations.