Browsing by Subject "Trend"

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Comprehensive assessment of climate extremes in high-resolution CMIP6 projections for Ethiopia
(2023) Rettie, Fasil M.; Gayler, Sebastian; Weber, Tobias K. D.; Tesfaye, Kindie; Streck, Thilo
Climate extremes have more far-reaching and devastating effects than the mean climate shift, particularly on the most vulnerable societies. Ethiopia, with its low economic adaptive capacity, has been experiencing recurrent climate extremes for an extended period, leading to devastating impacts and acute food shortages affecting millions of people. In face of ongoing climate change, the frequency and intensity of climate extreme events are expected to increase further in the foreseeable future. This study provides an overview of projected changes in climate extremes indices based on downscaled high-resolution (i.e., 10 × 10 km2) daily climate data derived from global climate models (GCMs). The magnitude and spatial patterns of trends in the projected climate extreme indices were explored under a range of emission scenarios called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The performance of the GCMs to reproduce the observed climate extreme trends in the base period (1983–2012) was evaluated, the changes in the climate projections (2020–2100) were assessed and the associated uncertainties were quantified. Overall, results show largely significant and spatially consistent trends in the projected temperature-derived extreme indices with acceptable model performance in the base period. The projected changes are dominated by the uncertainties in the GCMs at the beginning of the projection period while by the end of the century proportional uncertainties arise both from the GCMs and SSPs. The results for precipitation-related extreme indices are heterogeneous in terms of spatial distribution, magnitude, and statistical significance coverage. Unlike the temperature-related indices, the uncertainty from internal climate variability constitutes a considerable proportion of the total uncertainty in the projected trends. Our work provides a comprehensive insight into the projected changes in climate extremes at relatively high spatial resolution and the related sources of projection uncertainties.
Plant-based foods for future. Results of consumer and professional expert interviews in five European countries - EIT-Food Project „The V-Place“
(2020) Gebhardt, Beate; Hadwiger, Klaus
This working paper documents the methodology of the qualitative studies and the resulting insights, as part one of the two-stage study of the Project „The V-Place - Enabling consumer choice in Vegan or Vegetarian food products“ in six European countries. The interviews with 70 consumers and professional experts in total has already been completed. Still in 2020, a quantitative consumer survey will be conducted in Germany, Denmark, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. The project is led by the Hohenheim Research Center for Bioeconomy, University of Hohenheim. The Department of Agricultural Markets at the University of Hohenheim is responsible for the qualitative studies. This project is funded by EIT Food, the Food Innovation Community of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT). EIT is an EU institution under Horizon 2020, the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation.
Spatiotemporal climate variability and food security implications in the Central Ethiopia Region
(2024) Senbeta, Abate Feyissa; Worku, Walelign; Gayler, Sebastian
Studies focusing on the spatiotemporal distribution of climatic parameters and meteorological drought are of paramount significance for countries like Ethiopia, where climate change and variability cause major losses to rain-dependent agriculture. In this study, the National Meteorology Institute of Ethiopia provided an Enhanced National Climate Services (ENACTS) dataset at a spatial resolution of approximately 4 km by 4 km over 38 years (1981–2018) was used to study climate trends, spatiotemporal variability, and meteorological drought in the Central Ethiopia Region. Coefficient of variation (CV), Standardized Rainfall Anomaly (SRA), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Mann-Kendall trend test, and Sen's slope were used for the analysis. The findings suggest that Belg rainfall (also known as "small-rain") varied greatly in space and time over the study area, with area-averaged CV of 29 % and pixel-level CVs ranging from 63 to 93 %. The average precipitation during Belg experienced a 15 % decrease from 2000 to 2019 compared to the preceding two decades, from 1981 to 1999. The maximum temperature has increased significantly during the Annual, Belg, and Bega seasons. The SPI and SRA showed that there have been multiple drought episodes with rising negative rainfall anomalies, with a drought occurring every 2.9 years during the Kiremt (also called "big rain", spanning from June to September) and Belg seasons. The growing negative rainfall anomaly, high CV, and highly significant increase in mean maximum temperature during the Belg season is concerning for food security and poverty eradication. The notable rise in rainfall during the June (sowing period) and November (harvesting period) also hurts crop production during the main cropping season. Thus, developing appropriate adaptation strategies and policies oriented toward climate-resilient agriculture is crucial to meet the global sustainable development goals (SDGs) and Africa Union's Agenda 2063.