Browsing by Subject "Vulnerability"

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    Assessing human mobility and its climatic and socioeconomic factors for sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (2023) Li, Qirui; Samimi, Cyrus
    Promoting human mobility and reducing inequality among countries are the Sustainable Development Goals’ (SDGs) targets. However, measuring human mobility, assessing its heterogeneity and changes, and exploring associated mechanisms and context effects are still key challenges, especially for developing countries. This study attempts to review the concept of human mobility with complex thinking, assess human mobility across forty countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and examine the effect of climatic and socioeconomic factors. Based on the coined definition of human mobility, international migration and cross-border trips are taken to assess human mobility in terms of permanent migration and temporary moves. The forty SSA countries are hence classified into four mobility groups. Regression models are performed to identify key determinants and estimate their effects on mobility. The results reveal that seven of these forty countries had a high mobility, whereas most experienced a decline in permanent migration. Lesotho, Cabo Verde, and Namibia presented high temporary moves, while Eritrea, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, and Liberia had a high permanent migration. Climatic and socioeconomic conditions demonstrated significant effects on mobility but were different for temporary moves and permanent migration. Wet extremes reduced mobility, whereas extreme temperature variations had positive effects. Dry extremes promoted permanent migration but inhibited temporary moves. Economic wealth and political instability promoted permanent migration, while the young population counteracted temporary moves. Food insecurity and migrant networks stimulated human mobility. The analysis emphasises the interest in analysing human mobility for risk reduction and sustainability management at the multi-county level.
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    The impact of agricultural innovations on poverty, vulnerability and resilience to food insecurity of smallholders in Ethiopia
    (2022) Biru, Wubneshe Dessalegn; Zeller, Manfred
    Ethiopia has adopted agriculture centered growth strategies over the last three decades that give more emphasis on improving agricultural production and productivity with the ultimate goal to transform the country’s economy. The strategies have mainly aimed at improving smallholder agriculture through introducing improved technologies intended to boost agricultural production and thus alleviate poverty and food insecurity. Although agriculture centered growth strategies contributed to sustained growth in the country over the last two decades, the benefits of growth have not been evenly distributed with observed rising income inequality and a still significant proportion of smallholders remaining under the poverty line. Similarly, despite considerable yield progress over the last three decades due to the introduction of improved inputs Ethiopian farmers’ yield gap compared with other developing countries is quite high. Moreover, the frequent occurrences of shocks such as drought and flooding adversely affect smallholders substantially and thereby exacerbate the existing poverty and food insecurity problems in the country. This thesis applied different econometric techniques to analyze the impact of the adoption of multiple agricultural technologies on crop yield, poverty, vulnerability, and resilience to food insecurity in Ethiopia. The study uses four rounds of household level panel data collected between 2012 and 2019 to assess the link between the adoption of the different combinations of five productivity-enhancing technologies: chemical fertilizer, improved seed, pesticide, and soil and water conservation practices: terracing and contour ploughing on consumption, poverty, vulnerability, and yields of smallholders. To solve the endogeneity problem in the regression models, we applied two-stage multinomial endogenous switching regression model combined with the Mundlak approach. Additionally, the thesis examines the role of the adoption of chemical fertilizer and improved seeds on household resilience to food insecurity amid the occurrence of adverse shocks. The findings are presented in three chapters of the cumulative thesis (Chapters two to four). Chapter two analyses the effect of productivity enhancing technologies and soil and water conservation measures and their possible combinations on consumption, poverty, and vulnerability to poverty. Per capita consumption expenditure for food and other essential non-food items, such as clothing and footwear, is used as a proxy variable to measure poverty. Using the national poverty line in 2011 prices, sample households are grouped into poor and non-poor households and the movement of sample households in and out of poverty between 2012 and 2016 is analyzed using a poverty transition matrix. By employing the ordered logit model, the study additionally examined the dynamics of poverty and vulnerability as well as their drivers. The results show that the adoption of the different combinations of agricultural technology sets including single technology adoption has considerable impacts on consumption expenditure and the greatest impact is attained when farmers combine multiple complementary inputs. Similarly, we find that the likelihood of households remaining poor or vulnerable decreased with adoption. In addition, the study revealed that poorer households are the least adopters of the technology combinations considered in the study, thereby being the least to benefit from adoption. We, therefore, conclude that the adoption of multiple complementary technologies has substantial dynamic benefits that improve the poverty and vulnerability status of households, and given the observed low level of adoption rates, we suggest that much more intervention is warranted, with a special focus on poorer and vulnerable households, to ensure smallholders get support to improve their input use. Chapter three assesses the impacts of multiple technology adoption on the yield of Ethiopia’s four staple crops, namely teff, wheat, maize and barley. Regarding the empirical estimation, we specified yield equations for each of the four crops and five to six possible input combinations that are included in the analysis indicating the presence of slope effect of technology choice other than the intercept of the outcome equations. The findings suggest that the application of two or more complementary inputs is considerably linked with higher maize, teff, barley, and wheat yield. Specifically, barley yield is highest for farmers who have adopted a combination of at least three of the technologies. Maize producers are the largest beneficiaries of the technologies. The impact of the technology choice sets tends to have an inconclusive effect on wheat and teff yields. However, a significant yield gap in all of the four crops was observed. Socio-economic characteristics of the household head such as age and gender as well as the household’s access to infrastructure and spatial characteristics of the household are other important determinants of crop yield. The implications are that more publicly funded efforts could be worthwhile for easing adoption constraints, which would in turn help smallholders to increase their crop yields that indirectly improve their livelihood. Chapter four aims to identify the determinants of household resilience to food insecurity which is the household’s ability to absorb or cope with the negative effects of shocks and bounce back to at least their initial livelihood status and assess its role on future household food security when hit by adverse shocks. Furthermore, the study analyzes the role of single or joint adoption of chemical fertilizer and improved seed on household food security. The household food security indicators used in the analysis are dietary diversity and per capita food consumption and uses data from the last three waves out of our four survey rounds. In terms of empirical estimation, the household resilience capacity index is estimated by combining factor analysis and structural equation modeling. Then different regression models are executed to assess the causal link between technology adoption and resilience capacity and household food security indicators in the face of adverse shocks. Our findings reveal that the most important pillars contributing to the building of household resilience capacity are assets followed by access to basic services. We find that the initial level of the household resilience score is significantly and positively associated with future household food security status. Moreover, the results reveal that the adoption of chemical fertilizer and improved seed is significantly and positively associated with household resilience capacity index, dietary diversity, and food consumption over time. Shocks such as drought appear to be significant contributors to the loss of household food security. Overall, it is revealed that the adoption of improved inputs significantly and positively increases household food security. However, the results show no evidence that supports the current level of adoption that helps households to shield themselves from the adverse effects of shocks. Finally, this study gives insights on examining the impacts and impact pathways of adoption of improved technologies on smallholder welfare which guide decision-makers for intervention as well as pave a way for future research that contributes to the fight against rural poverty and food insecurity. This thesis also concludes that public intervention in terms of investment in providing improved agricultural practices is crucial in improving rural livelihood, but it has to be inclusive and provide opportunities for the poor and vulnerable.
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    Vulnerability and risk management of rural farm households in Northern Vietnam
    (2010) Fischer, Isabel; Heidhues, Franz
    Despite the achievements of the ?doi moi? reform process, which was launched in 1986, Vietnam is still one of the poorest countries in the world, with 28.9 per cent of the total population (85 million in 2007) living below the national poverty line (UNDP 2007). Especially the mountainous, rural areas of Northern Vietnam are underdeveloped. Poor and near-poor farm households endure manifold risks and income shocks, which threaten their existence. Normally, insurance systems would step in to assist. In developing countries however, where access to formal insurance services is hardly available, rural farm households have developed alternative risk management strategies. The Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF) of the Department for International Development (DFID 1999), was applied as an analytical tool to identify and assess risks and risk management strategies of vulnerable rural livelihoods in the Uplands of Northern Vietnam. The role of informal social networks was analyzed with the help of Social Network Analysis (SNA). An Adaptative Conjoint Analysis (ACA) was implemented to examine the potential demand for a formal or semi-formal microinsurance scheme in the area of livestock insurance. Furthermore, additional insights were gained from interdisciplinary research on issues of human, health and livelihood security, as well as from case studies on natural resource use in Southeast Asia. The central hypotheses of this research on livelihood strategies in general and adaptive strategies such as insurance in particular are that they (1) have the potential to reduce livelihood vulnerability and that (2) the differentiated knowledge of livelihood strategies is crucial for a better understanding of the reasoning behind the exploitation of livelihood assets, such as natural resources or physical assets in the form of livestock, despite the negative medium and long-term effects. Research results lead to the following conclusions: First of all, only a very elaborate use of existing capital assets can improve the livelihood situation of vulnerable households in Northern Vietnam. Living in remote mountainous regions with scarce natural resources and limited access to other assets, the preconditions are rather difficult for ethnic minority people, even more for women. Secondly, in order to improve the situation, all stakeholders have to be aware of the existing risk management strategies (e.g. raising livestock and selling it in case of a livelihood emergency is one of the most popular risk coping strategies in the mountainous regions of Northern Vietnam) and learn from both, advantages and disadvantages of currently applied strategies to translate them into effective policies. Concerning the access to financial services, people still face several constraints, as credits are often not available for certain activities or at a certain point in time. In addition, savings and insurance services, when available are not adapted to the needs. Furthermore, emerging expenditures for livelihood risks usually go beyond the scope of the dis-saving (in cash and in kind) ability of rural households. Taking into consideration the above stated situation of changing agricultural activities, including higher input use, and the resulting decline in the number of large ruminants, one should be very careful not to destroy the so far still functioning traditional social networks. Even though these networks are not able to fully buffer all shocks and crises, they are at least one asset (social capital asset) that is initially accessible by everybody and quite often a means to compensate to some degree the lack of other capital assets as depicted in the SLF. Research results point to a number of policy issues that need to be addressed if household?s vulnerability to poverty is to be significantly reduced among ethnic minority households in Northern Vietnam. First of all, poverty reduction strategies and programs need to consider a broader target group, not only the currently poor but also the vulnerable households. The promotion of innovative financial products, such as a combination of credit and insurance, especially for loans that are taken up to purchase livestock, is considered a successful approach to support vulnerable households. Finally, it is assumed that an efficient and accessible health care system would be an important alternative for securing livelihoods. In addition, im¬pro¬ved extension services and knowledge transfer for all people, especially women, could sup¬port a sustainable future development of ethnic minority households and therefore, in the long-run, lead to poverty alleviation.