Unveiling wheat’s future amidst climate change in the Central Ethiopia Region

Abstract

Quantifying how climatic change affects wheat production, and accurately predicting its potential distributions in the face of future climate, are highly important for ensuring food security in Ethiopia. This study leverages advanced machine learning algorithms including Random Forest, Maxent, Boosted Regression Tree, and Generalised Linear Model alongside an ensemble approach to accurately predict shifts in wheat habitat suitability in the Central Ethiopia Region over the upcoming decades. An extensive dataset consisting of 19 bioclimatic variables (Bio1–Bio19), elevation, solar radiation, and topographic positioning index was refined by excluding collinear predictors to increase model accuracy. The analysis revealed that the precipitation of the wettest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the most influential factors, which collectively account for a significant proportion of habitat suitability changes. The future projections revealed that up to 100% of the regions currently classified as moderately or highly suitable for wheat could become unsuitable by 2050, 2070, and 2090, illustrating a dramatic potential decline in wheat production. Generally, the future of wheat cultivation will depend heavily on developing varieties that can thrive under altered conditions; thus, immediate and informed action is needed to safeguard the food security of the region.