The range potential of North American tree species in Europe

Abstract

European forest ecosystems are projected to change severely under climate change especially due to an anticipated decline in the distribution of major tree species in Europe. Therefore, the adaptation of European forests appears necessary and urgent. While spontaneous adaptation mechanisms bear a large self-guided potential, we focus on quantifying the potential of management-guided mechanisms. Besides other possible tree species groups for adaptation, non-native tree species from North America have a long tradition in Europe, yet their full distribution potential is not completely revealed. We applied an ensemble species distribution model approach to six North American species, using combined occurrence data from the native and naturalized ranges to gain more insights into the species suitability in the introduced area in 2070 (2061–2080) under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Our findings support the assumption that there is unreported species potential in the introduced area beyond their current distribution. Next to northeastern range shifts projected for all species, we identified Abies grandis, Liriodendron tulipifera, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia with increasing range potentials in the future. P. ponderosa and P. menziesii var. menziesii are projected to show a steady and decreased range potential under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively.