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ResearchPaper
2009
The camp view of inflation forecasts
The camp view of inflation forecasts
Abstract (English)
Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un-
certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter
provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters? judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.
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Publication license
Publication series
Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge; 320
Published in
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Faculty
Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences
Institute
Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (bis 2010)
Examination date
Supervisor
Cite this publication
Schmid, K. D., Sauter, O., & Geiger, F. (2009). The camp view of inflation forecasts. https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/5302
Edition / version
Citation
Identification
DOI
ISSN
ISBN
Language
English
Publisher
Publisher place
Classification (DDC)
330 Economics
Original object
University bibliography
Free keywords
Monetary policy Survey forecasts Inflation uncertainty Heterogenous beliefs and expectations Monetary aggregates
Standardized keywords (GND)
Inflation Prognose
Sustainable Development Goals
BibTeX
@techreport{Schmid2009,
url = {https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/5302},
author = {Schmid, Kai Daniel and Sauter, Oliver and Geiger, Felix et al.},
title = {The camp view of inflation forecasts},
year = {2009},
school = {Universität Hohenheim},
series = {Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge},
}