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Long-term trends in yield variance of temperate managed grassland

dc.contributor.authorMacholdt, Janna
dc.contributor.authorHadasch, Steffen
dc.contributor.authorMacdonald, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorPerryman, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorPiepho, Hans-Peter
dc.contributor.authorScott, Tony
dc.contributor.authorStyczen, Merete Elisabeth
dc.contributor.authorStorkey, Jonathan
dc.contributor.corporateMacholdt, Janna; Professorship of Agronomy, Institute of Agriculture and Nutritional Sciences, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
dc.contributor.corporateHadasch, Steffen; Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Crop Science, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
dc.contributor.corporateMacdonald, Andrew; Protecting Crops and Environment, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK
dc.contributor.corporatePerryman, Sarah; Computational and Analytical Sciences Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK
dc.contributor.corporatePiepho, Hans-Peter; Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Crop Science, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
dc.contributor.corporateScott, Tony; Protecting Crops and Environment, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK
dc.contributor.corporateStyczen, Merete Elisabeth; Section of Environmental Chemistry and Physics, Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
dc.contributor.corporateStorkey, Jonathan; Protecting Crops and Environment, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-20T07:49:19Z
dc.date.available2024-12-20T07:49:19Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.date.updated2024-12-02T06:44:29Z
dc.description.abstractThe management of climate-resilient grassland systems is important for stable livestock fodder production. In the face of climate change, maintaining productivity while minimizing yield variance of grassland systems is increasingly challenging. To achieve climate-resilient and stable productivity of grasslands, a better understanding of the climatic drivers of long-term trends in yield variance and its dependence on agronomic inputs is required. Based on the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted (UK), we report for the first time the long-term trends in yield variance of grassland (1965–2018) in plots given different fertilizer and lime applications, with contrasting productivity and plant species diversity. We implemented a statistical model that allowed yield variance to be determined independently of yield level. Environmental abiotic covariates were included in a novel criss-cross regression approach to determine climatic drivers of yield variance and its dependence on agronomic management. Our findings highlight that sufficient liming and moderate fertilization can reduce yield variance while maintaining productivity and limiting loss of plant species diversity. Plots receiving the highest rate of nitrogen fertilizer or farmyard manure had the highest yield but were also more responsive to environmental variability and had less plant species diversity. We identified the days of water stress from March to October and temperature from July to August as the two main climatic drivers, explaining approximately one-third of the observed yield variance. These drivers helped explain consistent unimodal trends in yield variance—with a peak in approximately 1995, after which variance declined. Here, for the first time, we provide a novel statistical framework and a unique long-term dataset for understanding the trends in yield variance of managed grassland. The application of the criss-cross regression approach in other long-term agro-ecological trials could help identify climatic drivers of production risk and to derive agronomic strategies for improving the climate resilience of cropping systems.en
dc.description.sponsorshipOpen Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.
dc.description.sponsorshipDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
dc.description.sponsorshipBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
dc.description.sponsorshipBiological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)
dc.description.sponsorshipMartin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg (1043)
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00885-w
dc.identifier.urihttps://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/17058
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rights.licensecc_by
dc.subjectAgronomic management
dc.subjectBiomass production
dc.subjectClimate resilience
dc.subjectFertilizer input
dc.subjectFood security
dc.subjectLiming
dc.subjectPlant species diversity
dc.subjectSoil pH
dc.subjectTemperature
dc.subjectWater stress
dc.subjectBiological Sciences
dc.subject.ddc630
dc.titleLong-term trends in yield variance of temperate managed grasslanden
dc.type.diniArticle
dcterms.bibliographicCitationAgronomy for sustainable development, 43 (2023), 3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00885-w. ISSN: 1773-0155
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.issn1773-0155
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.issue3
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitleAgronomy for sustainable development
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishernameSpringer
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublisherplaceHeidelberg
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume43
local.export.bibtex@article{Macholdt2023-04-26, doi = {10.1007/s13593-023-00885-w}, author = {Macholdt, Janna and Hadasch, Steffen and Macdonald, Andrew et al.}, title = {Long-term trends in yield variance of temperate managed grassland}, journal = {Agronomy for Sustainable Development}, year = {2023-04-26}, volume = {43}, number = {3}, }
local.export.bibtexAuthorMacholdt, Janna and Hadasch, Steffen and Macdonald, Andrew et al.
local.export.bibtexKeyMacholdt2023-04-26
local.export.bibtexType@article

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