A new version of this entry is available:
Loading...
Article
2022
Decoding the geography of natural TBEV microfoci in German: a geostatistical approach based on land-use patterns and climatological conditions
Decoding the geography of natural TBEV microfoci in German: a geostatistical approach based on land-use patterns and climatological conditions
Abstract (English)
Background: Tickborne-encephalitis (TBE) is a potentially life-threating neurological disease that is mainly transmitted by ticks. The goal of the present study is to analyze the potential uniform environmental patterns of the identified TBEV microfoci in Germany. The results are used to calculate probabilities for the present distribution of TBEV microfoci in Germany based on a geostatistical model. Methods: We aim to consider the specification of environmental characteristics of locations of TBEV microfoci detected in Germany using open access epidemiological, geographical and climatological data sources. We use a two-step geostatistical approach, where in a first step, the characteristics of a broad set of environmental variables between the 56 TBEV microfoci and a control or comparator set of 3575 sampling points covering Germany are compared using Fisher’s Exact Test. In the second step, we select the most important variables, which are then used in a MaxEnt distribution model to calculate a high resolution (400 × 400 m) probability map for the presence of TBEV covering the entire area of Germany. Results: The findings from the MaxEnt prediction model indicate that multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27.0%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the highest contribution to our model. These two variables are followed by four additional variables with a lower, but still important, explanatory influence: Land cover classes (19.6%), multi annual minimum air temperature (14.9%), multi annual sunshine duration (9.0%), and distance to coniferous and mixed forest border (7.0%). Conclusions: Our findings are based on defined TBEV microfoci with known histories of infection and the repeated confirmation of the virus in the last years, resulting in an in-depth high-resolution model/map of TBEV microfoci in Germany. Multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the most explanatory power in our model. The results may be used to tailor specific regional preventive measures and investigations.
File is subject to an embargo until
This is a correction to:
A correction to this entry is available:
This is a new version of:
Notes
Publication license
Publication series
Published in
International journal of environmental research and public health, 19 (2022), 18, 11830.
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191811830.
ISSN: 1660-4601
Other version
Faculty
Institute
Examination date
Supervisor
Edition / version
Citation
DOI
ISSN
ISBN
Language
English
Publisher
Publisher place
Classification (DDC)
610 Medicine and health
Collections
Original object
Standardized keywords (GND)
Sustainable Development Goals
BibTeX
@article{Borde2022,
url = {https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/16559},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph191811830},
author = {Borde, Johannes P. and Glaser, Rüdiger and Braun, Klaus et al.},
title = {Decoding the Geography of Natural TBEV Microfoci in Germany: A Geostatistical Approach Based on Land-Use Patterns and Climatological Conditions},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
year = {2022},
volume = {19},
number = {18},
}