Fakultät Agrarwissenschaften

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Die Fakultät entwickelt in Lehre und Forschung nachhaltige Produktionstechniken der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft. Sie erarbeitet Beiträge für den ländlichen Raum und zum Verbraucher-, Tier- und Umweltschutz.

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Now showing 1 - 9 of 9

Exploring the plausibility of inoculated cowpeas as a climate adaptation strategy for Namibian smallholder farmers
(2025) Rasche, Livia; Katjana, Johannes; Jantke, Kerstin; Uchezuba, David; Schneider, Uwe A.; Lombardi, Mariarosaria
Increased cultivation of cowpeas is a possible adaptation option for Namibian farmers under changing climatic conditions. Using inoculated cowpeas can potentially double the yields under favorable climate conditions. But is such a potentially beneficial agricultural adaptation technique likely to be adopted? We surveyed 90 cowpea farmers from 30 villages in the Kavango region of northern Namibia on their households and farms, access to institutions and services, food consumption and preferences, and perceptions of climate change. Our survey reveals that smallholder farmers will not readily adopt the new technology. At most, about 50% of farmers can be convinced by new information to change their agricultural activities. When specifically asked about their willingness to grow inoculated cowpeas, almost all farmers responded that they would be willing to do so. However, the farmers are reluctant to allocate more land for cowpea cultivation, mainly because harvesting is very time and labor-intensive. The study shows that technology assessments should be conducted in combination with socio-economic assessments to realistically assess the potential success of proposed adaptation measures, as the extent to which a new technology may be adopted is an essential indicator for justifying funding of new technologies or adaptation programs.
The farming question: Intergenerational linkages, gender and youth aspirations in rural Zambia
(2022) Ogunjimi, Oluwafemi; Daum, Thomas; Kariuki, Juliet
With agriculture considered key to generating jobs for Africa's growing population, several studies have explored youth aspirations toward farming. While many factors explaining aspirations have been well studied, little is known about the actors' shaping aspirations. We developed a novel framework that focuses on the factors and actors shaping the formation and actual aspirations of rural youth and applied a unique “whole‐family” approach based on mixed‐methods data collection from adolescents (boys and girls) and corresponding adults. We applied this approach in rural Zambia, collecting data from 348 adolescents and adults in 87 households. The study finds that parents strongly shape youth aspirations—they are much more influential than siblings, peers, church, and media. Male youth are more likely to envision farming (full or part‐time) than female youth. The male preference for farming reflects their parent's aspirations and is reinforced by the patriarchal system of land inheritance. Parents' farm characteristics, such as degree of mechanization, are also associated with aspirations. We recommend a “whole‐family” approach, which acknowledges the influential role of parents, for policies and programs for rural youth and a stronger focus on gender aspects.
Influence of climate-smart technologies on the success of livestock donation programs for smallholder farmers in Rwanda
(2024) Kandulu, John M.; Zuo, Alec; Wheeler, Sarah; Dusingizimana, Theogene; Chagunda, Mizeck G. G.
Climate change threatens the livelihoods of Sub-Saharan African farmers through increased droughts. Livestock donation programs offer a potential solution, but their effectiveness under climate stress remains unclear. This study assesses the economic viability of integrating climate-smart technologies (cowsheds and biogas plants) into these programs in Rwanda. Using a stochastic benefit–cost analysis from the beneficiary perspective, we evaluate the net gains for households receiving heifers compared to the current program. Our findings reveal that integrating climate-smart technologies significantly enhances economic viability. Households with cows and climate-smart technologies can possibly realise net benefits 3.5 times higher than the current program, with benefit–cost ratios reaching 5:1. Beyond economic benefits, adopting biogas reduces deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, and respiratory illness risks. This study demonstrates that integrating climate-smart technologies into livestock donation programs can generate positive economic, environmental, and health benefits, leading to more resilient and sustainable smallholder systems. However, overcoming implementation challenges requires tailored policy packages addressing local barriers.
Is the system of rice intensification (SRI) pro poor? Labour, class and technological change in West Africa
(2021) Graf, Sarah Lena; Oya, Carlos
CONTEXT Increasing numbers of young people enter Sub-Saharan Africa's labour markets each year while industrial jobs only grow slowly. As 62% of Sub-Saharan Africans work in agriculture and as the rural population will continue to rise, agriculture will need to provide additional income- earning opportunities. In this context agricultural technologies should be promoted that can increase food production to answer rising demand and generate decent income-earning opportunities. The System of Rice Intensification (SRI) is widely promoted in West Africa and could address these needs – but recent findings from Asia present negative social impacts on workers. OBJECTIVE This paper explores the mechanisms that shape adoption patterns and impacts of SRI in different (West African) contexts through a labour lens. METHODS Our innovative theoretical framework integrates analytical and empirical categories from Farming Systems research and agrarian political economy. The mixed methods approach combines: (1) quantitative analysis of existing survey data from 857 agricultural households in Ghana, Benin and Mali; and (2) qualitative analysis of an in-depth case study in the Oti Region of Ghana. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION SRI increases yield and profitability in West African rice farming, especially when locally adapted. Farmers adjust SRI to fit lowland rice farming, where water cannot be controlled and to address labour constraints. Additional labour for transplanting (instead of broadcasting) – coinciding with an existing labour bottleneck – constrains SRI adoption. SRI is mainly practised by marginal and accumulating farmers and to a lesser extent by medium farmers. Accumulating farmers invest in agriculture, farm profit-oriented and overcome labour constraints by hiring. Thus, they can practise SRI on larger scale and their absolute benefits are higher. Nevertheless, they rely on hired labour to do so, which strengthens workers' bargaining position. Consequently, SRI benefits all: accumulating farmers who employ as well as marginal farmers and hired labourers. Contrary to findings from Asia, SRI seems to be relatively pro-poor in West Africa. SIGNIFICANCE While seasonal labour use remains a key constraint to technology adoption, labour intensive technologies can also contribute to increasing income-earning opportunities. The social outcomes of technological change will be shaped by both the existing agricultural practices and the social relations in which a new technology is adopted. Our theoretical framework can inform further research and the application of existing evidence to new contexts.
A multifaceted analysis of Myanmar’s rice sector: gender perspectives, international competitiveness, and farmers’ emotional well-being
(2025) Chan, Nandar Aye; Zeller, Manfred
The agricultural sector is vital to Myanmar’s economic development, food security, and poverty reduction. However, recent global shifts in commodity markets, combined with local crises such as climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, conflicts, economic instability, and rising fertilizer prices and operational costs, have significantly affected Myanmar’s agri-food sector. These challenges threaten the performance of the agricultural sector, particularly the rice sector, which is essential for many livelihoods, rural employment, and export earnings. The sector faces declining productivity, reduced incomes, rising debt burdens, and increased vulnerability, especially among smallholder farmers, including women. Therefore, the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Irrigation (MOALI) is dedicated to strengthening the rice sector through promoting inclusive gender roles, enhancing competitiveness in the domestic and international rice markets, and safeguarding the socio-economic well-being of all farmers. Addressing Myanmar’s key agricultural challenges and aligning with the objectives of MOALI, this dissertation investigates three critical areas (Chapters 2 to 4) to make a modest knowledge contribution to the sustainability and long-term development of the country’s rice sector. Despite government initiatives and extensive research on Myanmar’s rice sector, three important aspects remain underexplored: the gender gap in productivity, cost competitiveness, and the role of productivity in mediating shocks to farmers’ well-being. Specifically, this dissertation has three main objectives: 1) to estimate the magnitude of the gender gap in rice productivity and identify the factors contributing to this gap; 2) to analyze the cost competitiveness of rice production by examining production costs, cost efficiency, and the potential effect of improving cost efficiency on the country’s global competitiveness; and 3) to examine the effects of shocks on farmers’ well-being and explore how rice productivity mediates this relationship. Understanding these issues is crucial for designing policies that improve the performance of Myanmar’s rice sector and strengthen farmers’ resilience. The dissertation employs a quantitative approach, using household survey data and other secondary data sources. Particularly, data for Chapters 2 and 3 originate from the 2014 Area-Based Farm Household Survey in the Ayeyarwady Delta Region, administered by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) under the Metrics and Indicators for Tracking in the Global Rice Science Partnership project. Chapter 3 also incorporates nationwide phone survey datasets, including the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) and the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) during 2021-2022. This cumulative dissertation consists of five chapters. Chapter 1 presents the introduction. Chapter 2 examines the gender gap. Chapter 3 focuses on the cost competitiveness of Myanmar’s rice sector. Then, Chapter 4 investigates the mediating role of rice productivity in the shocks-happiness relationship, and Chapter 5 concludes the dissertation and provides policy recommendations. Chapter 2 presents an analysis of the gender productivity gap in Myanmar’s rice sector. The analysis focuses on the Ayeyarwady Delta region, one of the three major agroecological zones for rice cultivation in Myanmar, using IRRI regional plot-level data. The study addresses seasonal variation and assesses jointly managed plots. The Oaxaca-Blinder mean decomposition approach is used to identify the causes of gender differences in monsoon and summer paddy productivity. The empirical findings show that women managers are 7 percent less productive than men in monsoon paddy production, with 95 percent of this gap explained by structural effects. Plots jointly managed by women and men outperform those managed by either women or men alone in summer paddy production. The results show that seasonality affects the disparity in gender productivity. Divorced women account for a large portion of the productivity differential among non-married women managers. Initiatives to eliminate the gender yield gap in Myanmar should pay attention to the unique requirements and obstacles that women encounter throughout different seasons and tailor their interventions accordingly. Chapter 3 conducts a comparative analysis of production costs among major rice-producing countries and estimates the cost efficiency of rice farming in Myanmar using a stochastic frontier cost function model. Moreover, this study examines the link between cost efficiency and domestic resource costs (DRC), a key indicator of global competitiveness in rice production. The study also considers the seasonal variations in Myanmar during both the dry and wet seasons. The findings show that Myanmar ranks as the second least expensive rice-producing country among selected Asian countries. The mean cost efficiencies are 89% and 86% for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Both dry and wet seasons of rice production demonstrate a comparative advantage. The results also show that cost efficiency positively contributes to global competitiveness in both seasons. Focusing on education, farm size, seed procurement strategies, and training programs can increase cost efficiency, thereby further improving global competitiveness in rice production. Chapter 4 examines the effects of shocks on farmers’ happiness in Myanmar and explores the mediation role of rice productivity in this relationship. The study uses nationwide phone survey datasets from Myanmar, provided by the IFPRI, specifically focusing on the rice sector to assess productivity. The study applies the mediation analysis outlined by Acharya et al. (2016) and estimates the average controlled direct effect (ACDE) of shocks while accounting for rice productivity as a mediator. To ensure robustness, additional causal mediation analysis is employed. The results indicate that rice productivity partially mediates the shock-happiness relationship. This suggests that shocks influence happiness through additional pathways beyond productivity. Moreover, farmers’ happiness is more directly influenced by recent productivity than by past agricultural performance. However, past shocks continue to have a significant and lingering effect on their happiness. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to mitigate the impact of shocks on well-being not only by improving rice productivity but also by addressing other factors that influence farmers’ happiness. The findings of this dissertation contribute to the literature on the development of Myanmar’s rice sector. Firstly, providing the first empirical evidence of the gender gap in productivity can help inform targeted policy interventions to increase rice productivity while addressing the specific needs of men and women in rice production. Secondly, it provides scalable insights to promote the competitiveness, sustainability, and efficiency of rice production, which not only benefits Myanmar but also contributes to the broader global rice market. Finally, given the importance of understanding the relationship between shocks and well-being through rice productivity, this insight provides valuable guidance for designing interventions to strengthen productivity and improve well-being in vulnerable agrarian communities facing climate-related shocks. All these chapters contribute to the understanding of seasonality, which is vital for highlighting the importance of seasonal production dynamics in Myanmar’s rice sector. Overall, Myanmar’s rice sector can achieve greater sustainability and development by promoting gender equality, enhancing competitiveness, and supporting resilience-building measures for rice-farming communities, ultimately improving farmers’ well-being.
Range‐wide population viability analyses reveal high sensitivity to wildflower harvesting in extreme environments
(2021) Treurnicht, Martina; Schurr, Frank M.; Slingsby, Jasper A.; Esler, Karen J.; Pagel, Jörn
1. The ecological effects of harvesting from wild populations are often uncertain, especially since the sensitivity of populations to harvesting can vary across species’ geographical ranges. In the Cape Floristic Region (CFR, South Africa) biodiversity hotspot, wildflower harvesting is widespread and economically important, providing an income to many rural communities. However, with very few species studied to date, and without considering range‐wide sensitivity to harvesting, there is limited information available to ensure the sustainability of wildflower harvesting. 2. We studied geographical variation in sensitivity to wildflower harvesting for 26 Proteaceae shrubs with fire‐driven life cycles using population viability analyses. We developed stochastic, density‐dependent population models that were parameterised from individual demographic rates (adult fecundity, seedling recruitment and adult fire survival) and local environmental conditions across the geographical ranges of the study species. We then simulated the effects of harvesting on populations in different environments across species ranges. Our model simulations predicted extinction risk per population, and we derived extinction probabilities over 100 years in response to different harvesting regimes. We used these population‐level extinction probabilities to quantify inter‐ and intraspecific variation in sensitivity to wildflower harvesting, and to explore how geographical variation in sensitivity depends on environmental conditions (climate, soil fertility and fire disturbance). 3. We detected considerable inter‐ and intraspecific variation in sensitivity to wildflower harvesting for the 26 study species. This held for both ‘nonsprouters’ and ‘resprouters’ (species with low and high fire persistence ability, respectively). Intraspecific variation in sensitivity to harvesting showed varying geographical patterns and associated with environmental variation. Notably, sensitivity was high towards range edges and at the climatic extremes of species ranges respectively. 4. Synthesis and applications. We show the importance of combining spatial demographic data, density‐dependent population dynamics and environmental variation when assessing sensitivity to harvesting across species' geographical ranges. Our findings caution against the application of general harvesting guidelines irrespective of species, geographical location or local environmental conditions. Our range‐wide population viability analyses provide insights for developing species‐specific, spatially nuanced guidelines for conservation management. Our approach also identifies species and areas to prioritise for monitoring to prevent the overexploitation of harvested species.
Technology adoption and farm performance in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from Mozambique and Ghana
(2025) Asravor, Jacob; Zeller, Manfred
Increasing the productivity of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is fundamental to achieving many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the region and, by extension, in the world. Given its importance to rural livelihoods and national economies in SSA, productivity growth in this crucial sector has the potential to stimulate broad-based poverty reduction (SGD 1) and further address the persistent food insecurity and malnutrition challenges (SDG 2) faced by the region. However, despite its potential for growth and importance to the region, productivity growth in agriculture has either stagnated or declined in SSA over the years. Efforts to tackle this persistent challenge have been focused on the promotion of improved technological packages and modern farming practices in various parts of the region. Nonetheless, adoption has mostly remained sluggish across SSA, stressing the continuing need for a deeper understanding of the underlying barriers to sustained adoption, as well as the effects of adopted technologies and farming practices on farm performance, particularly in terms of technical efficiency and technological gains. The smallholder farming contexts of Mozambique and Ghana offer distinct cases for gaining useful insights into the underlying barriers to sustained adoption of modern technologies and farming practices, as well as their effects on farm performance. Specifically, despite ongoing efforts by the Mozambican government and development partners to promote sustainable intensification practices, such as integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices (including mineral fertilizer, improved seeds and depending on the location, organic inputs such as manure and compost), adoption remains low among farm households. As a result, resource-poor farmers often resort to unsustainable land use practices, such as shifting cultivation, slash-and-burn agriculture, deforestation and forest degradation, along with low-cost agronomic practices like crop rotation, crop residue retention and intercropping to safeguard soil fertility. However, evidence is scarcely available on the underlying barriers to sustained adoption of promoted ISFM practices, along with the technological and technical efficiency gains associated with integrating improved versus recycled seeds with agronomic practices in Mozambique. Furthermore, one of the key challenges to technology adoption, as well as to farm performance and the long-term sustainability of agriculture, is the issue of aging farming population. This issue is particularly pressing in Ghana, where, in addition to the growing disinterest of young people in farming and an estimated life expectancy ranging from 55 – 65 years, the average age of farmers is reported to be 55. Given that the majority (73.5%) of Ghana’s population is below the age of 36, an improved understanding of how farm operators’ age influences their managerial performance and technology adoption is crucial for shaping evidence-informed policies aimed at attracting, retaining and leveraging this demographic dividend within the Ghanaian agricultural sector. From the foregoing, this thesis has three key objectives: (1) to explore context-specific evidence on the systemic barriers to sustained adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices by Mozambican smallholder farmers; (2) to examine the technological and technical efficiency gains associated with integrating improved versus recycled seeds with agronomic practices such as crop rotation, intercropping and crop residue management by Mozambican smallholder farmers; and (3) to assess how the age of farm operators – disaggregated into the youth, middle-aged and aged – influences their managerial performance and farm technology adoption in Ghana. The objectives of this thesis were achieved using data from both primary and secondary sources. Relying on mixed-methods research design, qualitative data were drawn using key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs), and quantitative data via a household survey in the Central and Northern zones of Mozambique. These primary data were used to address the first and second objectives of the thesis. Overall, 32 qualitative interviews, consisting of 8 FGDs, 5 medium- and large-scale farmer KIIs and 19 expert KIIs were conducted in Mozambique. This was followed by a household survey which was conducted in the Central and Northern zones of Mozambique, involving 607 farming households who were selected through a multi-stage sampling technique. Both datasets were collected in 2022. To address the third objective of the thesis, secondary data from two nationally representative surveys in Ghana were used. These include all seven waves of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS) which were conducted from 1987/88 – 2016/17 and the two waves of the Ghana Socio-economic Panel Survey (GSPS) conducted between 2009/10 and 2014/15. While the GLSS was implemented using a repeated cross-sectional design, the GSPS followed a panel design. Overall, 24,596 farm households across Ghana were included in the sample for analysis. This thesis is organized into five chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the research topic by providing a general overview of the study within the global and sub-Saharan African contexts, followed by background information on agriculture and technology adoption in both Mozambique and Ghana. Chapter 2 explores the systemic barriers that continue to impede the sustained uptake of ISFM practices among Mozambican smallholder farmers. Chapter 3 evaluates the technological and technical efficiency gains associated with existing farmer practices of integrating improved versus recycled seeds with agronomic practices in Mozambique. Chapter 4 examines the relationship between farm operators’ age, technology adoption and managerial performance in Ghana. Finally, chapter 5 presents the conclusion of the thesis, outlines its limitations and makes recommendations for policy and future studies. Chapter 2 relies on mixed-methods research design to explore the systemic barriers to sustained adoption of ISFM practices among Mozambican resource-poor farmers. Complementing content analysis of qualitative data with descriptive analysis of data from a household survey, the findings indicate that whereas Mozambican smallholder farmers have generally recognized the compelling need for ISFM practices in high-value crop production systems such as vegetables, cotton, sugarcane and tobacco, they are reluctant to make similar investments in food crops. Instead, they adopt low-cost agronomic practices such as crop residue management, intercropping, crop rotation and shifting cultivation to safeguard soil fertility in food crop systems. Evidence further shows that the use of improved seeds, mineral fertilizers and depending on the location, external organic inputs such as manure and compost, is more prevalent among three groups of Mozambican smallholder farmers: independent vegetable producers, farmers participating in contract farming schemes and those residing in districts bordering Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Additionally, despite expressing strong willingness to invest in these inputs, farmers’ access to and use of these inputs are hindered by a complex set of systemic barriers, including unfavorable market conditions which limit profitability and intensify risk; institutional limitations such as credit constraints and human capital limitations; liquidity constraints; challenges associated with key ISFM components; an existing culture of dependency shaped by past experiences of farmers with free inputs; and entrenched perceptions among both farmers and professionals that Mozambican soils are inherently “fertile” or “virgins” and “fertilizers destroy the soil”. Given these findings, the study recommends that interventions aiming to promote sustainable land use practices like ISFM in land-abundant contexts of SSA like Mozambique, should prioritize addressing these systemic barriers to ensure sustained adoption of these practices. For instance, to raise productivity in food crop systems, agrarian interventions should adopt a holistic value chain approach which goes beyond the production phase to strengthen other critical segments of the value chain, such as extending agro-dealer networks to major production areas, as well as enhancing access of smallholder farmers to output markets that offer stable and fair prices. Again, there is the urgent need to intensify education and raise awareness among both farmers and professionals to dispel the widespread misconception that fertilizers damage the soil and on the need for farmers to implement ISFM as a package rather than in isolation. Addressing these systemic constraints holds an enormous prospect for fostering the sustained uptake of sustainable intensification practices like ISFM in Mozambique. Drawing on the findings from chapter 2, which indicates that Mozambican smallholder farmers seldom invest in purchased inputs for food crops, chapter 3 utilizes the same data to assess the technological and technical efficiency gains associated with existing farmer practices of integrating improved versus recycled seeds with agronomic practices, including crop rotation, intercropping and crop residue management in food crop systems. Relying on an endogeneity-corrected stochastic frontier and metafrontier functions to analyze the quantitative data, results from this first-stage analysis were contextualized and reinforced with evidence from the qualitative data. The findings suggest that farm households who integrated improved seeds with agronomic practices achieve a modest technological advantage (4%) relative to their peers who integrated recycled seeds with these same practices. Nonetheless, the results reveal no significant difference in technical efficiency between both groups. Instead, farm households in both groups performed these agronomic practices so poorly, such that each group could expand its total farm production by more than 50% simply by implementing these existing agronomic practices more efficiently. Consequently, the greatest potential for raising farm output in food crop systems in Mozambique lies in the capacity of resource-poor households to effectively implement these existing agronomic practices. Based on the findings, it is recommended that programs aiming to boost productivity in food crop systems in Mozambique should prioritize building the capacity of farm households to enable them implement these agronomic practices more efficiently. Encouraging resource-poor farmers to strictly adhere to recommended agronomic protocols, such as selecting the right crop mixes for intercropping and rotation, retaining crop residues on the field and using inoculants to boost nitrogen fixation in legumes can considerably enhance soil fertility and support productivity in subsequent crops. Given the increasingly aging farming population in Ghana and the urgent need for evidence-informed policies aimed at attracting and retaining the country’s growing youth population in agriculture, chapter 4 of the thesis relies on a nationally representative data from the GLSS and GSPS to evaluate how the age of resource-poor farmers influence their farm-level decision-making in terms of technology adoption and managerial performance. Drawing on a three-decade dataset from cereal-producing households and guided by the definitions of youth provided by the African Youth Charter and Ghana’s National Youth Policy, farm households were categorized into three age-based groups: youth (15–35 years), middle-aged (36–59 years) and aged (60 years and above). The findings indicate that farm operator age does not have a statistically significant effect on the type or level of agricultural technology adopted by farming households in Ghana. This finding remains robust even when the analysis is disaggregated by cereal type (i.e., maize, rice, millet and sorghum). However, the findings reveal marked differences in managerial performance between younger and older farmers, with the youth exhibiting greater managerial proficiency relative to their older peers. These findings suggest that when offered equal access to productive resources, younger farmers are better equipped to drive agricultural productivity growth in Ghana, thereby significantly contributing to the sector’s growth in the country. The study recommends for policymakers to pursue youth-focused agrarian initiatives that ensure easy access of the youth to productive resources such as land, credit and improved technologies, aimed at enabling younger farmers to leverage their potential in driving agricultural productivity gains. Overall, the findings of this thesis bring to the fore the existing systemic barriers that continue to obstruct smallholder investment decisions in sustainable land use practices like ISFM in land-abundant contexts like Mozambique and further underscore the urgent need for policy measures aimed at addressing them. It further stresses that the greatest potential for sustainably raising farm performance in low-input food crop systems in Mozambique lies in the ability of resource-poor farmers to implement these low-cost agronomic practices more efficiently. Finally, the findings highlight the need to focus on enhancing the managerial skillsets of farm operators across all age groups, especially the younger ones, rather than just concentrating on technological advancements.
Use of seasonal forecasts in smallholder agricultural decision-making in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
(2025) Kayamo, Samuel Elias; Berger, Thomas
Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia’s Central Rift Valley face pronounced risks from climate variability and erratic rainfall, challenges that threaten agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods. Rising climate hazards have spurred the promotion of seasonal precipitation forecasts as a promising means of supporting adaptation, yet the translation of such information into tangible adaptive action depends on a complex interplay of local agro-ecological conditions, available adaptation strategies, and behavioral responses. This thesis provides a comprehensive, interdisciplinary investigation into the economic value, adoption dynamics, and policy implications of seasonal forecast information for smallholder farmers, integrating agent-based modelling, dynamic risk assessment, crop-growth simulation, and framed field experiments. A principal focus of the research is the evaluation of adaptive management strategies for smallholder farmers enabled by seasonal forecasts. Examined strategies include crop and cultivar selection in response to rainfall outlooks, optimized planting dates, forecast-driven fertilizer management, and flexible in-season adjustments (such as crop switching or tied ridging). Each option is rigorously evaluated using observational, experimental and simulated data. In assessing the practical impacts of integrating seasonal rainfall forecast information into smallholder agricultural decision making, the results of this thesis indicate that forecast-based cultivar selection has the potential to support more effective management strategies for farmers in Ethiopia’s Central Rift Valley. By enabling better alignment of cultivar choices with anticipated seasonal rainfall conditions, farmers can enhance the adaptive capacity of their management practices in the face of climate variability. While the observed financial gains under realistic forecast accuracy are modest, these findings highlight that forecast-based cultivar selection can serve as a valuable decision-support tool. However, realizing the full potential of this approach depends not only on improvements in forecast skill, but also on the availability of reliable evidence regarding cultivar performance under diverse weather conditions and on substantial changes to seed breeding and distribution systems. Only when forecast-matching cultivars are made available to farmers promptly can the benefits of high-accuracy seasonal rainfall forecasts be more fully achieved. In the subsequent analysis, this thesis applies a state-contingent embedded risk framework to systematically explore how the timing of smallholder management decisions—specifically crop choice, sowing date, tied-ridging, relay cropping, and fertilization—can be optimized in light of seasonal rainfall forecast information. Using multi-stage discrete stochastic programming, the study evaluates adaptive strategies at the whole-farm level by simulating crop yield responses to management choices across 2,400 possible weather trajectories. The results show that forecast-informed management decisions can improve farmer income, but the extent and consistency of these benefits vary across seasons. The findings further reveal that opportunities for in-season adjustment—rather than choices made solely at the start of the season—are especially critical for achieving positive results in response to forecast information. By evaluating the long-term impacts of forecast-based decision making at the whole-farm level in the Central Rift Valley, this study emphasizes the need for more tailored and effective communication and advisory services of seasonal rainfall forecasts. In addition, the analysis highlights the inherent unpredictability of agricultural outcomes under climate uncertainty and demonstrates the continuing importance of building empirical understanding of how management actions and varying weather conditions together shape farm performance. These insights suggest that policy interventions aimed at strengthening real-time advisory systems and supporting farmers’ capacity for flexible, adaptive management are essential for fully realizing the benefits of seasonal rainfall forecasting in smallholder agriculture. The third component of the thesis explores how smallholder farmers receive, interpret, and act upon seasonal precipitation forecasts, drawing on evidence from framed field experiments conducted in Ethiopia’s Central Rift Valley. The analysis demonstrates that neither improvements in forecast accuracy nor dissemination of information alone are sufficient to induce significant behavioral change among farmers. Adoption is most likely when seasonal precipitation forecasts are communicated repeatedly, presented in clear and actionable formats, and tailored to local realities through trusted channels. The results further indicate that factors such as farmers’ education levels, prior experience with seasonal forecasts, and regular engagement with extension services play a central role in facilitating effective use of such information. The findings highlight the potential of digital innovations, such as smartphone-based advisories and AI-supported tools, to improve the reach and personalization of seasonal precipitation forecasts, provided these solutions are developed through participatory and user-centered approaches. Overall, the study underscores the importance of aligning advisory services with both the informational and contextual needs of smallholder farmers in order to foster more effective and inclusive adaptation to climate variability. Overall, the results of this thesis emphasize that the benefits of seasonal rainfall forecasts can only be fully realized through an integrated approach. This requires the combination of advances in forecast technology, adaptive input systems, effective communication, and supportive policy environments. Comprehensive and locally tailored adaptation packages—linking seasonal rainfall forecast information to improved access to seed and inputs, credit, training, and extension services—emerge as the most effective strategy for strengthening resilience. Ultimately, by connecting quantitative modeling, empirical experimentation, and policy analysis, this thesis provides a robust foundation for scaling up inclusive, impactful advisory systems based on seasonal rainfall forecasts to better equip smallholder farmers for managing risks associated with increasing rainfall variability.
What will the future bring? – Socio-economic challenges to herder households in the Great Gobi B strictly protected area in Mongolia
(2024) Michler, Lena M.; Kaczensky, Petra; Batsukh, Daginnas; Treydte, Anna C.
Nomadic pastoralism is still practiced by around one-third of the Mongolian population. Recent socio-economic constraints have challenged pastoral livelihoods and rising livestock numbers threaten overall rangeland health and biodiversity conservation. In the Mongolian Gobi, herder households fully depend on livestock production but little is known about their livelihood trends and potential compatibility with protected area goals. We combined interview data in the Great Gobi B strictly protected area (SPA) with secondary data on regional and national herder households to determine the importance of social networks, willingness to continue a herding lifestyle, and degree of involvement in protected area (PA) management. Our descriptive data confirm that herding is no longer centred on a subsistence lifestyle but rather around cashmere production. Contrary to sustainability goals, especially in protected areas, herder households continue to increase livestock numbers in response to high expenditures in the economic reality of a market economy. We conclude that herders in the Great Gobi B SPA are reaching neither socio-economically nor ecologically sustainable livestock numbers which challenge herders’ livelihoods and PA management alike. We recommend enhancing communication between the PA management and the herding community and increasing participatory conservation activities. National strategies are needed to resolve the current dilemma of increasing livestock numbers to meet livelihood demands and the growing threat to rangeland health.

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